Welcome to the weekend in Major League Baseball. It’s been a fun week of action thus far, and it’s only going to get better today and tomorrow. If you’ve been following along with my best bets column, you would know I’m on an 11-4 run. And if you didn’t, now you know! Let’s get into my MLB best bet for Saturday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games!
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Baltimore Orioles -1.5 (+110) over New York Mets
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Today we have another opportunity to fade the New York Mets. I backed Baltimore’s run line yesterday and it was close for the first few innings, but the Orioles broke the game open with 8 runs scored in the 6th and 7th innings to win the game 10-3. New York mustered just 4 hits as a team and got most of their runners on base from walks. As for the Orioles, they clobbered the Mets pitching. The O’s finished with 12 hits and went 5-for-17 with runners in scoring position and left 8 men stranded. They were consistently putting pressure on New York’s pitching, and it was only a matter of time before they broke through. Baltimore also forced NYM manager Buck Showalter to nearly empty his bullpen, as 7 pitchers came in for relief after David Peterson.
On the mound for the Mets today is Tylor Megill, and he is very similar to Peterson in one aspect: they both can’t pitch on the road. Megill is 4-1 with a respectable 2.79 ERA in 7 starts at Citi Field, but away from Queens his ERA skyrockets to 7.99 with a 2.235 WHIP. And the best part is hitters have a .345 average, .433 on-base percentage and .946 OPS in his 8 starts on the road. In just his last 4 road starts, the right-hander has surrendered 26 runs and 28 hits in 13.2 innings. For the O’s, Kyle Gibson gets his 24th start of the season, and he’s been much better in recent weeks. In July, Gibson had a 4.21 ERA and limited hitters to a .222 batting average and .221 xBA. The veteran is coming off a stellar outing in Canada and is trending in the right direction, which is something I can’t say for Megill. I’m expecting another big win for the Orioles tonight.
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