We nearly saw history last night as Alex Cobb was one out away from a no-hitter against the Reds. In general, yesterday’s slate was an interesting one. The A’s upset the Mariners, the Cardinals beat the Padres and the Nats beat the Blue Jays.
What can we expect today? Let’s get into my MLB best bets for Wednesday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions and YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
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Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (+120) over Los Angeles Angels
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a team collapse more abruptly than the Angels this season. Los Angeles was just a few games out of the wild-card race at the trade deadline and proceeded to make a series of moves to strengthen their rotation, bullpen and lineup. In theory, that sounded smart. However, it didn’t turn out that way. The Angels placed Lucas Giolito, Matt Moore, Reynaldo López, Hunter Renfroe and Randal Grichuk on waivers yesterday after acquiring 3 of them just a few weeks ago. This move was purely financial since it’s a salary dump, but it’s also the Angels waving the white flag. They are 12.5 games out of the wild-card as we head into Wednesday’s games, and I think it will only get worse.
The Angels will start Reid Detmers, a 24-year-old lefty who owns a 3-10 record and a 5.03 ERA after 23 starts. In August, Detmers is 1-2 with an 8.68 ERA, 1.88 WHIP, .312 batting average allowed, .275 xBA and 40% hard-hit rate. He will face a Phillies offense that is hotter than the sun with a 156 wRC+ since August 15, and a lot of the damage has been done against lefties. Philadelphia ranks 8th in batting average, 6th in on-base percentage, 4th in slugging and 6th in wRC+ against southpaws in August. And against left-handed starters this month, they are 7-2 and average 7.11 runs per game.
The Phillies will send Cristopher Sanchez to the mound for his 14th start of the season, and the lefty owns a 3.33 ERA with a 3.66 xERA. He has surrendered 2 or fewer earned runs in 6 of his last 7 starts and will take on an Angels lineup that has struggled against southpaws recently. Since August 1, the Angels rank 24th in batting average, 26th in on-base percentage, 28th in slugging and 28th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Philadelphia has a massive edge at the plate, on the mound and in the bullpen, so I’m expecting yet another multi-run win for the home team.
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San Francisco Giants F5 -0.5 (-105) over Cincinnati Reds
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Reds were baseball’s most exciting team in June and July, but the excitement has worn off, and their offense has gone cold. Cincinnati has lost 5 of its last 6 games coming into this afternoon’s contest, and will continue to be without rookie phenom Matt McLain for another few weeks. But even when the Reds had McLain in the lineup, they were struggling. In the last 2 weeks against right-handed pitching, the Reds rank 29th in batting average, 28th in on-base percentage, 28th in OPS and 28th in wRC+. They also own a 28% strikeout rate in that span against righties, which is the 4th-highest mark in baseball. Cincinnati’s offensive woes were on full display last night as Alex Cobb took a no-hitter in the 9th inning against the Reds before allowing a double with 2 outs. And here’s the bad news for the Reds — Cobb and Logan Webb have nearly the same arsenal. Both right-handers rely on a sinker to get ground balls, and then Cobb will go to a split-finger while Webb will turn to a changeup — both pitches do nearly the same thing. After that, Cobb has a slider while Webb has a curveball. So my thinking is, if they can’t hit Cobb’s arsenal, why would they be able to hit Webb’s?
Originally, I was thinking about taking San Francisco’s run line at plus-odds since Cobb saved the bullpen from any work last night. However, looking at Cincinnati’s games in the last week, I saw a trend start to develop. In their last 6 games, the Reds have scored a total of 1 run in the first 5 innings. That means during those 30 innings, they were able to plate a run just once. In summary, Cincinnati was held scoreless in the first half of the game in 5 of their last 6 games! That gets even worse when considering who the Reds are starting this afternoon.
Hunter Greene is back from the injured list after being sidelined for 2 months with right hip discomfort. I’m not positive that he’s 100% healthy, though, since in his 2 starts since being activated, Greene has allowed 14 runs, 15 hits, 5 home runs and 8 walks in 6.2 innings. We all know the incredible velocity of his fastball, but he seems to be struggling to put it in the strike zone. If San Francisco’s offense can get Webb 1-2 runs of support, this should be another slow start for the Reds.
Logan Webb is also involved in one of today’s MLB prop bets
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