I know, it’s nearly football season, but don’t let that completely steal your attention away from the last month of baseball! Today’s slate includes plenty of action, including the Dodgers and Red Sox at Fenway, Padres and Brewers in Milwaukee and Reds and Diamondbacks at Chase Field. Let’s get into my MLB best bet for Sunday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions and YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
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Cincinnati Reds ML (+102) over Arizona Diamondbacks
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Graham Ashcraft has had a bizarre 2023 season. He started the year on fire with a 2.10 ERA in April but was quickly brought back to reality with a 9.21 ERA in May. The bad times continued in June as he posted a 10.38 ERA in 4 starts and it started to seem like his great start to the season was an outlier. That’s when his season took another turn as Ashcraft recorded a 1.84 ERA in 5 starts in July and now has a 3.10 ERA in 4 starts in August. In summary, it has been a rollercoaster. However, he’s currently on the exciting part of the ride, so this is the time to tail him. Along with being much more effective in the last few weeks, he’s also been able to give the Reds the depth they desperately needed. Ashcraft has completed at least 7 innings in 4 straight starts and 6 innings in 9 of his last 10 outings. But here’s the biggest reason for why I like Cincinnati’s chances: cutters. Ashcraft is unique in the way that he throws a cutter for more than 50% of his pitches. Fortunately for him, that’s a pitch the Arizona lineup has been struggling against. Since Opening Day, the Diamondbacks rank 22nd against cutters. More recently, since the All-Star Game, their offense ranks 25th against that pitch.
Let’s get it out of the way first – Slade Cecconi is a fantastic name. Arizona’s #9 prospect has made it to the show just 3 years after being drafted. In 15.1 innings for the Diamondbacks, Cecconi has accumulated a 2.94 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP. However, he does have a 5.62 xERA and a 12.8% barrel rate which indicates his sub-3 ERA is slightly misleading. I need to see more from the right-hander before I back him, especially because he wasn’t all that great in the Minors this season. Cecconi had a 6.38 ERA and a 1.38 WHIP in 20 starts in Triple-A this season before being called up. After Cecconi’s day is done, he will hand the ball off to a bullpen that is incredibly taxed. Arizona used 7 relievers in last night’s loss, including Miguel Castro, Kyle Nelson and Paul Sewald, 3 of their high-leverage arms, who would be making their 3rd appearance in 4 days if they pitch tonight. I’m very surprised to see Cincinnati at plus-odds, so I’m taking it before they shift to the favorite.
This game is also featured in today’s +1001 MLB mega parlay
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