It’s a new week in Major League Baseball with a lot of teams beginning a new series today. There is plenty of excitement on deck as stars including Carlos Rodon, Justin Verlander, Blake Snell and Zac Gallen are toeing the rubber for their teams. Let’s get into my MLB best bets for Tuesday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games!
Looking for a great sign-up bonus? With FanDuel Sportsbook’s amazing new offer, you can bet $5 and receive $200 in bonus bets plus $100 off NFL Sunday Ticket! Simply click this link to claim your can’t-miss new-customer promo.
Washington Nationals F5 +0.5 (+106) over New York Yankees
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Before Opening Day, if you told me I would be backing Josiah Gray and the Nationals against Carlos Rodon and the Yankees in late August, I wouldn’t have believed you. But here we are, and it has become a reality. Rodon was the biggest free-agent splash in the offseason, and the Yankees appeared to have formed the best 1-2 punch in the league with Gerrit Cole — or so they thought. The lefty has been a massive disappointment in his first season in the Bronx as he’s posted a 1-4 record, 7.33 ERA and a 5.40 xERA after 6 starts. It’s clear that Rodon is not the same ace that he was with the White Sox and Giants, and I think it’s due to a mix of things. Firstly, his health. His back has been a problem for the last few months and he most recently missed his turn in the rotation because of a hamstring injury. Secondly, his fastball went from having a .209 xBA allowed to a .290 in a matter of 2 seasons. Hitters are hunting his fastball, and I think the oddsmakers are still putting way too much respect in Rodon.
Josiah Gray hasn’t exactly been an ace this season, but he’s been far better than Rodon. The right-hander has a 3.96 ERA after 24 starts and has struggled with walks at times this season. However, tonight’s spot has been profitable for Gray. Washington’s young arm has struggled in front of the home fans this season with a 5.76 ERA and a .276 batting average allowed, but he’s been much better on the road. His ERA decreases to 2.82, and he’s allowed just a .245 batting average. Gray will face a Yankees lineup that has just a .204 average, 82 wRC+ and a 26.6% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching in August. And if you know Gray, you would know that he throws a lot of sliders — and I mean a lot. It’s his primary pitch, and it’s also been a pitch that New York has struggled against since the break. The Yankees own a -16.5 wSL in the second half of the season, which is the 4th-worst mark in the league. All we need is for the Nationals to be tied or winning after 5 innings, and there’s excellent value in that with Rodon on the mound.
PointsBet is one of the fastest-growing sportsbooks in America, and with a sign-up offer where you can get TEN $100 Second Chance bets, it’s easy to understand why! Join PointsBet right now to earn some bet credits.
San Diego Padres F5 -0.5 (-115) over Miami Marlins
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Jesus Luzardo and Blake Snell have been two of my favorite pitchers to back this season. Snell has transformed himself into a Cy Young candidate while Luzardo had a strong first half of the season but has fallen off recently. Luzardo was one of the best pitchers in the National League before the break with an 8-5 record and a 3.29 ERA. Once the season resumed after the All-Star Game, the lefty became a completely different pitcher. He is 0-3 with a 7.39 ERA and a 1.89 WHIP in 6 starts in the second half of the season. More recently, he has an 11.68 ERA, a 2.35 WHIP and has surrendered a .397 batting average with a .355 xBA in 3 outings in August. Luzardo has allowed 8 home runs in 12.1 innings this month after allowing 12 home runs in 109.1 innings in the first half of the season. And while the Padres have underperformed and failed to reach expectations set for them thus far, they have been an above-average team against left-handed pitching. Since the All-Star break, San Diego ranks 1st in batting average and 2nd in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS and wRC+ against southpaws.
If Snell didn’t walk as many hitters as he does, he would be one of the most dangerous pitchers in the game. However, even with his above-average walk rate, the lefty holds a 2.13 ERA in 7 starts in the second half of the season. In those 7 starts, Snell has limited hitters to a .178 batting average, a .189 xBA and just a 26% hard-hit rate. But even before the All-Star break, Snell was fabulous. He faced the Marlins at the end of May in Miami and threw 6 scoreless innings while allowing just 3 hits and striking out 7. The Marlins strengthened their offense at the trade deadline by acquiring Josh Bell and Jake Burger, which has certainly helped their run production, but it hasn’t changed their weakness against left-handed pitching. Miami ranks 17th in batting average, 22nd in OPS and 20th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching in the last month and a half. I have a lot more faith in Snell than Luzardo right now, so I’m backing the Padres to win the first 5 innings in San Diego.
Jesus Luzardo is also being targeted in today’s MLB prop best bet!
You can bet these MLB best bets over at Caesars, which has a great sign-up offer where you can secure $250 in bonus bets from a first wager of $50 or more! Click here to sign up for Caesars right now.
