We’ve made it to the final day of the week, and we have a massive slate of games to celebrate. There is plenty of day baseball with afternoon and night action too, so without further ado, let’s get into my MLB best bets for Sunday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games!
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Boston Red Sox ML (-105) over New York Yankees
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
The Yankees are in the midst of their worst stretch of the season. New York has lost 7 games in a row and has been outscored 45-15 in that span. Even with all these losses piling up, Aaron Boone and Aaron Judge continue to say that they are one turnaround away from making a wild-card run. Let’s be honest – that dream died weeks ago. They’ve lost 3 consecutive series heading into this rivalry weekend, and since the Sox won yesterday, they have already clinched the series win. The biggest issue for the Yankees is not a secret — their offense is terrible. Judge can only do so much as New York ranks 30th in batting average, 28th in OPS and 27th in wRC+ against right-handed pitching in August.
Josh Winckowski will make his first start of the season in the Bronx today. Winckowski has made 44 appearances out of the bullpen, and make no mistake, he’s not your average relief arm. Alex Cora has relied on Winckowski for all high-leverage situations this season, as he’s been the go-to guy in the middle innings. Winckowski is expected to only go an inning or two before handing the ball to Nick Pivetta, who will take the bulk of the game. If this was a few months ago, I would have hammered the Yankees. But fast forward a few months, and the Yankees’ offense is a joke and Pivetta has become a lockdown reliever. The veteran was moved from the rotation to the bullpen, and that move has turned his season around. Pivetta has a 3.31 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and has limited hitters to a .195 batting average and a .175 xBA in the second half of the season. At this good of a price, it’s hard to not love the Sox at Yankee Stadium.
Don’t miss today’s +1104 MLB mega parlay
Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-111) over San Francisco Giants
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Until the Braves prove otherwise, they are nearly always worth a look. That’s especially true when Max Fried is on the mound, and would you look at that, today’s that day! Fried has made 3 starts since returning from injury and is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP. During those 3 outings, Fried has allowed a .279 average which is paired with a .179 xBA and just a 30% hard-hit rate. That’s a huge difference between his batting average allowed and xBA, which means he has been on the wrong side of luck recently. Today’s start will come against the Giants, who are trying to avoid getting swept by Atlanta. However, that might be hard since San Francisco has had a tough month. Their offense ranks 30th in batting average, 29th in OPS and 30th in wRC+ in August. But dating back to the All-Star break, the Giants rank 29th in average, OPS and wRC+ against left-handed pitching.
No matter who the Giants start, this will be their most difficult outing of the season. The unlucky man is Jake Junis, who has actually been doing well recently but is in for a long day today. Atlanta has been mashing in August with a .305 batting average, .910 OPS and a 141 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. Their entire offense seems to be on fire which has made facing their lineup a nightmare. Junis is a reliever-turned-starter who relies on a slider and sinker for nearly 95% of his pitches. That’s not going to work too well against a lineup that ranks in the top 5 in baseball against those pitches since the All-Star break. The Braves are too hot to handle right now.
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Chicago Cubs F5 -0.5 (-135) over Kansas City Royals
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
I’m going back to my roots with this pick and fading Jordan Lyles. Lyles and I have a history that almost always ends with me going against him, so today shouldn’t be any different. Lyles has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball in the last few seasons, but to my amazement, he continues to find a job. This season, he owns a 6.30 ERA with a 1.30 WHIP in 23 starts for the Royals, but his weakness has become obvious — he can’t pitch on the road. Taking a look at his home and away splits, Lyles has a 5.40 ERA with a .233 batting average allowed in 11 starts in Kansas City this season which isn’t that bad. However, his ERA skyrockets to 7.19, and he has allowed a .290 batting average and an .863 OPS in 12 starts away from Kauffman Stadium. And combining both his home and away starts, Lyles has a 5.91 ERA and .259 batting average allowed in the first 5 innings. He will face a Cubs offense that ranks 4th in batting average, 2nd in OPS and 3rd in wRC+ against right-handed pitching in August.
Opposing Kansas City’s veteran is Kyle Hendricks, or as the Cubs fans call him “The Professor”. Hendricks joined the staff late as he was rehabbing an injury, but he’s posted a 4.00 ERA with a 4.15 xERA in 16 starts this season. The right-hander is an interesting case study because his strikeout rate is at an all-time low, yet he ranks in the 95th percentile in chase rate as well as the 94th percentile in hard-hit rate. Since Hendricks is a junk-ball pitcher, weak contact is his key to success. Over 7% of balls in play against the right-hander are considered weak contact which is nearly double the MLB rate. His changeup continues to get hitters way out in front, and as long as he limits the extra-base hits and keeps the ball on the ground, his offense will carry him to a victory.
Make sure to check out today’s YRFI/NRFI best bets!
Texas Rangers F5 -0.5 (-145) over Milwaukee Brewers
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Max Scherzer really loves the Rangers uniform. I would go as far as to say that he was the best trade-deadline pickup this season. Since being acquired from the Rangers, Scherzer is 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA and a 0.80 WHIP in 3 starts. He’s faced the White Sox, Athletics and Angels in that time and has limited hitters to a .159 batting average, a .166 xBA and a 30% hard-hit rate to go along with a 35% strikeout rate. Scherzer is obviously loving not pitching for the Mets and has made his feelings known about that too. In today’s series finale, Scherzer will face the Milwaukee Brewers, who were able to win the second game of the series behind Freddy Peralta and their excellent bullpen. That’s the big reason why I’m avoiding the later innings in this bet — I don’t want the Rangers to have to face Abner Uribe, Joel Payamps or Devin Williams with the game on the line. But back to the first 5 innings, the Brewers have an uphill battle against Scherzer. Besides facing Scherzer when he’s pitching his best, the Brewers also have been terrible against right-handed pitching recently. In August, Milwaukee has a .231 average, a .663 OPS and just an 81 wRC+ against right-handed pitching.
I’m a huge fan of the Rangers’ offense — and I’m not just saying that because I have several futures bets on Texas. They have a balanced lineup that is highlighted by one of the best first 4 hitters in the league: Marcus Semien, Corey Seager, Adolis Garcia and Nathaniel Lowe. The Rangers’ offense has hit both left and right-handed pitching well recently, but they have preferred righties. Their lineup ranks 7th in average, 4th in OPS and 6th in wRC+ against right-handers in August. On the mound for the Brewers will be the right-handed Adrian Houser, who has allowed a .308 batting average and a .344 on-base percentage in 44 innings on the road this season. With Scherzer on the mound and the Rangers offense hitting right-handers well, I’m backing Texas in the first half of the game.
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