Whether you prefer 4-0 in my last 4 or 10-4 in my last 14, I’ve been on quite the roll with my best bets column recently. Yesterday’s win included a slow start between the Red Sox and Mariners in Seattle, and spoiler alert, I’m going right back to that spot today. Let’s get into my MLB best bet for Wednesday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games!
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Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners F3 Under 2.5 (-110)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
For my best bet yesterday, I chose the first 3 innings under in the series opener in Seattle, and it cashed with just 1 run scored. Today, I’m going right back to it. A big reason for that is Kutter Crawford, Boston’s starting pitcher, who has gone under oddsmakers’ radar this season. Admittedly, I also backed the first 3 innings under in Crawford’s last start in San Francisco, and it also won as only 1 run was scored. Crawford was unreliable and inconsistent at the beginning of the season but has been a completely different pitcher since being moved back to the starting rotation — especially in July. The right-hander finished July with a 3.55 ERA and 1.03 WHIP as well as limiting hitters to a .202 batting average and .207 xBA. He faced some powerful offenses in July, too, like the Blue Jays, Rangers, Cubs, Giants and Mets (not really, though), so his success is even more impressive to me. And it all starts in the first 3 innings since Crawford is allowing a .231 average and has a 26.1% strikeout rate in the first 3 frames.
Seattle’s rotation is filled with young and promising pitchers, and Logan Gilbert is at the forefront of that new era. The right-hander has a 3.83 ERA with a 3.61 xERA and a 3.55 FIP, so he’s actually been getting slightly unlucky — even with a respectable ERA under 4. In all transparency, Gilbert hasn’t been fantastic since the all-star break. He has a 4.96 ERA in 3 starts which would concern me if I was taking a first 5 innings bet or a full-game bet, but I’m not. I’m focusing on just the first 3 innings because although Gilbert has struggled in the second half of the season, he’s allowed only 2 runs in the first 3 innings in his 3 starts. His success starts to wear off in the second time through the rotation, so I’m minimizing the possibility of a loss and taking the first 3 innings under in Seattle once again.
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