Today is one of my favorite days in the MLB season. Why, you might ask? Because the trade deadline is today at 6:00 pm ET! That means it’s the last day for the contenders to stock up for a postseason run and all the sellers to give away their veterans in return for prospects of the future.
I’m expecting a flurry of moves today, but first, let’s get into my MLB best bet for Tuesday. And be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games!
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Boston Red Sox vs Seattle Mariners F3 Under 2.5 (-115)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Two of the youngest and brightest stars in baseball take the mound in Seattle on Tuesday night. Brayan Bello of the Red Sox has been fantastic in his first full season in the show, while Bryce Miller caught everyone’s attention due to his historic start to his MLB career. Both pitchers are just 24 years old and have great potential within each organization, but enough about their future…. Let’s discuss why the game will start slow. Bello has been a silver lining in Boston’s disappointing season, as he has posted a 3.66 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 17 starts. His most recent start came against the best team in baseball, the Atlanta Braves, and he did not allow a run until the 6th inning. That’s been a common theme for the youngster; he has been fabulous in the first time through the order but can struggle in the later innings. In innings 1 through 3, Bello has a 3.02 ERA and is limiting hitters to just a .222 batting average. However, in innings 4 through 6, his ERA increases to 4.76 and opponents are hitting .277; that’s a big difference.
Similarly to Bello, Miller tends to struggle in the middle innings. He is limiting hitters to a .164 batting average and .224 on-base percentage in the first plate appearance, but he becomes much more hittable in the second time through since opponents have a .235 average against him. But the biggest reason for backing Miller tonight is simple: he is on his home mound. In Seattle he is 5-1 with a 2.70 ERA and has limited hitters to a .186 average and .566 OPS. But on the road his ERA skyrockets to 5.68 and the opponent’s batting average jumps to .250 with a .760 OPS. And perhaps the most important part of all is this: in Miller’s 8 starts in Seattle, he has allowed only 3 runs in the first 3 innings. All 3 of those runs came from the Yankees in a single start, so that means he hasn’t allowed a run in the first 3 innings in 7 of his 8 starts at home. It’s not like he’s had all easy opponents either since some of those teams were the Astros, Blue Jays, Marlins and Rays. Between these 2 teams fighting for an AL wild-card spot, I’m taking the first 3 innings under.
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