We’ve made it to the weekend in Major League Baseball, and there’s a huge slate of games to dive into. The action starts at 3:07 pm ET north of the border as the Angels take on Alek Manoah and the Blue Jays, but I’ve focused on a bet about 3,000 miles away from that game along with a divisional battle in St. Louis. Let’s get into my MLB best bets for Saturday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Boston Red Sox vs San Francisco Giants F3 Under 2.5 (-120) – 3U
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
For my favorite play of the day, we head to San Francisco for the second game of the series between the Red Sox and Giants. The pitching matchup will pin James Paxton against Ryan Walker, and I’m immediately drawn to the under. However, not the full game under because Walker won’t go more than a few innings. That means we could see Alex Wood or Sean Manaea taking the bulk of the innings, and the last thing I want to do is have my wager hang in the balance of their performance. Instead, I’m targeting the first 3 innings under, which should hopefully isolate just Paxton and Walker. It’s pretty simple why I want to back these pitchers as they’re criminally underrated. Paxton has a 3.46 ERA paired with a 3.17 xERA, but even that doesn’t share his full story.
He has been very unlucky this season, which is why his xERA is lower than his ERA, and that’s continued in the second half of the year. He has surrendered 11 runs on just 12 hits in 15 innings since July, but he’s limited hitters to a .214 batting average and a .201 xBA in those 3 outings. And in the first 3 innings, Paxton is holding hitters to a .203 average and .262 on-base percentage. The Canadian will face a San Francisco lineup that has been atrocious against left-handed pitching recently. Since the break, the Giants have a .161 average (29th), .506 OPS (28th) and a 39 wRC+ (28th) against southpaws. But going back to the start of July, San Francisco ranks 29th in batting average, on-base percentage, OPS and wRC+ against lefties.
If you’ve never seen Walker pitch, you should take a quick timeout to YouTube him. I don’t know if I’ve ever seen a pitcher throw across his body more than Walker, and it creates incredible movement on his sinker and slider. In fact, his sinker has 22% more vertical movement than the average sinker and his slider has 130% more horizontal movement than the average slider. His above-average movement has led Walker to rank in the 99th percentile in hard-hit rate, 99th percentile in average exit velocity, 98th percentile in xERA, 95th percentile in barrel rate, 94th percentile in xSLG and 89th percentile in xBA, just to name a few. The Red Sox struggled against Logan Webb’s sinker and slider combination last night, and that’s exactly what they’ll face again today. I have under 2 runs projected in the first 3 innings at Oracle Park, so I’ll happily take the under 2.5.
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Chicago Cubs ML (-104) over St. Louis Cardinals
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Baffled, bewildered and confused. Those were all of my emotions when I first saw the Cubs as underdogs against Adam Wainwright. In no way, shape or form should Wainwright be a favorite at this point in the season, and yet he’s a favorite against the hottest offense in baseball? I’m not buying it, so I’ll happily take the Cubs near plus-odds. In the second half of the season, Chicago has a .330 average (1st), .408 OBP (2nd), .537 SLG (2nd), .945 OPS (2nd) and 158 wRC+ (2nd) against right-handed pitching. They’ve faced a right-handed starter in 8 of their 14 games since the break, and Chicago has averaged 6.875 runs per game during those contests. In every sense of the word, they are bashing righties right now. And the next right-hander they face is Wainwright, a 41-year-old who ranks in the 1st percentile in xBA and xSLG. Oh, and did I mention the Cubs lineup has a career .319 average and .318 xBA in 169 plate appearances against Wainwright?
Admittedly, Jameson Taillon isn’t an ace. However, what he has been is better on the road. Taillon had a rough first half of the season with a 10.90 ERA in May and a 5.60 ERA in June, but he’s been sharper recently with a 2.96 ERA in July. He’s limited hitters to a .223 batting average during his 4 starts this month, and his best outing came in the Bronx against the Yankees. Taillon threw 8 scoreless innings against his former team and surrendered just 1 hit. Performing better on the road has been a common theme for the right-hander this season since he owns a 6.43 ERA at home and a 4.76 ERA on the road. But the biggest difference is in the opponent averages, as hitters have a .317 average and .894 OPS against him in Chicago but just a .214 average and .653 OPS anywhere else. Fading Wainwright has been a very profitable spot this season, so I’m going back to the well on Saturday.
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