It’s Sunday fun day in Major League Baseball, as all 30 teams will take the field today. The Twins and Orioles start the day with 12:05 PM first pitch in Baltimore, and then buckle up because games are on all day until Sunday Night Baseball in Queens between the Giants and Mets. I’m on a 4-1 run for my best bets this week, so how about we add 2 more wins to the record?
Let’s get into my MLB best bets for Sunday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105) over Miami Marlins
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
The Braves’ offense is truly a juggernaut. In June the Braves lineup had a 150 wRC+, which made for a huge gap between them and the 2nd placed team, the Rangers. Now, Texas is no slouch either, and only had a 128 wRC+ in June. That just shows how much better Atlanta’s offense was than every other team in the league last month. And although we’re in a new month, that didn’t stop the Braves’ offense from mashing yesterday. Saturday’s game between these two NL East foes ended in a 7-0 win for the Braves, marking their 5th straight win over the Marlins — all by several runs. Here are the scores of those last 5 games: 7-0, 16-4, 6-3, 14-6 and 6-0. For the cherry on top for the Braves, they have the 24-year-old phenom Spencer Strider on the mound.
Strider had a rough start to the month as his high barrel rate came back to bite him several times, but he turned it around quickly. In his last 2 starts against the Phillies and Twins, he allowed 2 runs and 11 hits with 19 strikeouts in 13 innings. This will be his 2nd consecutive start at home, which is yet another advantage for the Braves since Strider is allowing just a .186 batting average and .243 on-base percentage in 8 starts at Truist Park. Atlanta’s flamethrower will face a Marlins offense that has a combined .156 batting average and 45.5% strikeout rate in 33 plate appearances against him. Countering Strider will be Miami’s supposed ace, Sandy Alcantara. But this isn’t the same Alcantara baseball fans are used to this season since he has a 4.82 ERA in 16 starts, and more recently, 11 runs and 26 hits allowed in his last 19.1 innings. The bottom line is the Braves’ offense is too good right now, and this line is undervaluing their lineup.
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Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-120) over Washington Nationals
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Ranger Suarez has been incredible since returning from the injured list. In 9 starts, the lefty has a 3.18 ERA, a 3.03 FIP and a 23.8% strikeout rate. And the crazy part is that his ERA is skewed in a bad way because of a few poor starts when he first returned. Suarez looked rusty when he was first activated as he gave up 12 runs and 17 hits in his first 11.0 innings. But since then, the southpaw has a 1.35 ERA in his last 6 starts. During those starts, Suarez has faced some stiff competition like the Dodgers, Braves, Diamondbacks and Cubs — which makes his recent success even more impressive. But more importantly, one of his 6 recent starts came against this Nationals team in D.C. at the beginning of June. To say that Suarez dominated the Nats would be an understatement. In 7.0 innings, the lefty allowed just 1 run and 8 hits and issued only 1 free pass.
For weeks and months, baseball fans have been waiting for the Phillies to…well..become the Phillies. The pop in their bats has been non-existent and they have been stranding runners on base at a record pace. But finally, Philadelphia put up 19 runs on the Nats yesterday as the offense finally clicked. The Phils knocked MacKenzie Gore around for 7 runs in 2.2 innings which forced the Nats to go through their bullpen and waste a lot more arms than they intended to. On the hill for Washington this afternoon will be Trevor Williams, a right-hander with a 4.28 ERA, 5.24 xERA and 5.34 FIP in 16 starts. Williams is everything you don’t want to see from a starting pitcher – he has a flat fastball that he throws way too often, he’s incredibly hittable and struggles with command. Philadelphia took advantage of that when they faced Williams at the beginning of May since they shelled him for 4 runs, 6 hits, 2 home runs and 4 walks in 5.2 innings. With the way Suarez has been pitching and the possibility of the Phillies’ bats finally waking up, I’m taking the home team for a multi-run win.
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