Weekend baseball is back as games start early and go all day long. We have some exciting matchups like the Padres and Phillies, while there are some not-so-exciting matchups such as the A’s and Twins too. After a 2-0 day last time out, I’m back with another bet today. Let’s get into my MLB best bet for Saturday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-135) over Chicago White Sox (3u)
Spencer Strider on the mound with the Braves’ offense at the plate is an unfair combination. Strider finished the first half of the season with a 3.34 ERA, 3.08 xERA and a 2.84 FIP in 18 starts. He has become one of the best and most popular pitchers in baseball thanks to his high-velocity fastball, tree trunks for quads and fabulous mustache. The Clemson alum’s advanced metrics also agree with his success since he ranks in the 85th percentile or better in xBA, xERA, strikeout rate, chase rate and whiff rate. The only thing Strider can struggle with is getting barreled, which isn’t too surprising since his high-velo fastball can cause a lot of extra-base hits. He will start the second half of the season at home, which is yet another advantage for Strider. Although he has a slightly higher ERA at home than on the road, opponents hit much worse against him in Atlanta. Hitters had just a .192 average, .245 on-base percentage, .318 slugging percentage and .564 OPS against Strider at Truist Park in the first half of the season. To no surprise, the Braves have won 8 of Strider’s 9 home starts.
One of the biggest mysteries this season has been Lance Lynn. The veteran right-hander has a 6.03 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP at the break, but he’s become a strikeout machine in the last few weeks. Lynn has 51 punchouts in his last 6 starts, which is an insane rate, but he’s also allowed 21 runs in that time too. There seem to be 3 likely outcomes when facing Lynn – strikeout, walk or a home run. In the American League, Lynn has allowed the most runs, home runs and total bases while also surrendering the 3rd most hits. Here’s the part that worries me the most about Lynn facing the Braves: too many fastballs. The veteran throws his 4-seam fastball for over 40% of pitches, and before Friday night’s games, the Braves ranked 1st in the league in fastball runs above average. What is Lynn’s most used secondary pitch, you may ask? A cutter. And can you take a wild guess as to which team ranks 1st against cutters this season? If you guessed the Braves, you would be right. With a top 5 pitcher in the league on the mound with an elite bullpen and the #1 offense in baseball, I’m backing the Braves to bash Lynn and the Sox.
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