It was supposed to be a relatively quiet Thursday, but terrible air quality in New York City and Philadelphia yesterday caused changes to today’s slate – and today we have already lost a game that was one of my original picks – Diamondbacks vs Nationals.
Before we get into today’s remaining play, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks.
Let’s get into my MLB best bet for Thursday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Cincinnati Reds over 9.5 (-115)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Wednesday’s game between these teams turned into a softball score after just a few innings. There were an astonishing 12 runs scored after the first 3 innings, and then none until the 9th inning, when the Reds walked it off. That tells me several things: One, these dangerous offenses can take full advantage of the hitter-friendly conditions in Great American Ball Park. And two, both teams went to their bullpen earlier than they might have expected since their starter got rocked. For the Dodgers, Noah Syndergaard lasted only 3 innings, which left the rest of the game to the Los Angeles bullpen, so they will have several arms unavailable for this afternoon’s game. As for the Reds, Brandon Williamson managed to make it 5.2 innings before being pulled (I wouldn’t have left him out that long). And although Cincinnati used fewer relievers, they used several high-leverage arms such as Buck Farmer and Alexis Diaz. That means even after today’s starters leave the game, the opportunities to score runs will continue against the back half of the opposing teams’ bullpen.
For the series finale, Clayton Kershaw will toe the mound against Graham Ashcraft. If this matchup were in April, it would be an excellent pitching matchup, but we’re a long way from April. Ashcraft burst onto the scene at the beginning of the season with a 2.10 ERA and was looking like he could be the Robin to Hunter Greene’s Batman. However, Ashcraft was just the Joker all along because he posted a 9.21 ERA in May and allowed 7 runs or more in 3 of his 6 starts. In his first outing in June, the right-hander was shelled for 10 runs on 9 hits with 4 walks by the Rockies. That raised his ERA at home to 8.49 and his batting average against to .300, so I like the Dodgers’ chances of getting to Ashcraft, especially since they rank 3rd in wRC+ against right-handed pitching since May 1. And although Kershaw seems untouchable, the Reds own a 123 wC+ against left-handed pitching since the beginning of May. With heavy winds blowing out again, I’m taking the over 9.5 in Cincinnati.
Check out our MLB mega parlay and YRFI/NRFI Best Bets for Thursday.
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