Another week of baseball is on deck as an 8-game slate starts tonight at 4:05 pm ET in Boston. Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks.
Let’s get into my MLB best bet for Monday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-120) over Detroit Tigers
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
I faded Joey Wentz in his last start, and he turned in his best start of the season. Still, his best start was allowing 7 hits in 4.1 innings against the Rangers. He got incredibly lucky that Texas wasn’t able to convert with runners on base, but I doubt that lightning will strike twice. The Phillies offense scored 22 runs in their weekend series against the Nationals and the top of their order is finally coming to life, headlined by Kyle Schwarber. The leadoff slugger was 5-for-15 against Washington after a horrendous first 2 months of the season, so if he can get going and stay hot in June, it would be huge for the Philadelphia offense. He could play a large role in Monday’s game against the Tigers since Wentz has a .289 xBA with a 45% hard-hit rate and a 9.4% barrel rate, which all rank in the bottom 30% in their respective categories.
Aaron Nola is the far better pitcher in this matchup, even though he hasn’t performed to the best of his abilities this season. His ERA is up to 4.70 and his xBA sits at .241, which is still below average, but it’s his highest xBA since 2016. However, he gets the easiest assignment of his season as the Tigers come to town. They have lost 5 of their last 6 games and scored more than 3 runs only once during that span. Unfortunately for the Tigers, their losing ways should continue on Monday night against Nola since their lineup has a .207 batting average with a 21.9% strikeout rate in 32 plate appearances. A primary reason for their struggles against him has been Nola’s fastball, which has held hitters to a .188 xBA, and because the Tigers lineup ranks 28th against fastballs this season. Fading Wentz has been a money-maker this season, so I’ll do it again on Monday night.
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