We’ve made it to the weekend! Baseball is on all day, and that’s not an exaggeration because the Rays and Red Sox are playing 2 today so they get the slate started at 1:10 PM in Boston. Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks.
Let’s get into my MLB best bets for Saturday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Oakland Athletics Team Total Under 3.5 (-135)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
It’s been a rough, rough season for the Athletics. Oakland is supposed to be in a rebuild, but they’re on pace for the worst season in MLB history. The biggest problem with the team is that they lack any positive attributes. Their starting rotation is heinous, their bullpen is a disaster, and their offense is more than struggling at the plate. That leads me to this bet – the under on their team total. Oakland averages just 3.39 runs per game, which is 30th in the league, and it’s become very common to see their team total set at 2.5 runs. However, there are times when the team total is 3.5, and when that happens, I pounce on the under. The A’s have scored 4 or more runs just once in their last 15 games, and that one outlier was against Michael Soroka, who hasn’t pitched in the MLB in 2 years.
On Saturday afternoon, the A’s face Eury Perez, a 20-year-old flamethrower. The 6’8 starter completely skipped Triple-A on his way to the big leagues, and his lack of experience hasn’t shown in his young MLB career. Perez has allowed 6 runs and 13 hits along with 19 strikeouts in 19 innings, and he’s Oakland’s worst nightmare. The A’s are the worst team in baseball against fastballs with a -36.9 wFB (fastball runs above average), and the offspeed pitch they struggle against the most is sliders since they have a -10.0 wSL (slider runs above average). Can you guess Perez’s most common pitches? That’s right, the right-hander has a fastball that sits 97.3 MPH for his most common pitch and uses a slider, which has gotten a 39.5% whiff rate so far, as his primary secondary pitch. I don’t see Oakland getting a ton of baserunners against Perez, and since Miami’s bullpen hasn’t been under much stress recently, asking them to hold Oakland to 3 runs or less doesn’t seem unattainable.
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Cleveland Guardians vs Minnesota Twins Under 7.5 (-105)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
The best pitching matchup of the day takes place at Target Field in Minnesota as Logan Allen of the Guardians takes on Sonny Gray of the Twins. While Allen is putting together a Rookie of the Year campaign, Gray is working towards an AL Cy Young award. Each starter has played a crucial role in their team’s success, and with this good of a matchup in store, it’s hard to expect anything else but a low-scoring game. Allen is coming off his best outing of the season as he threw 7 scoreless innings while allowing just 3 hits and racking up 10 strikeouts against the Orioles last week. That lowered his season ERA to 2.72 and raised his strikeout rate to 25% – both very impressive numbers for a rookie. Allen gets a favorable matchup against a Twins offense that is dealing with several injuries, including to Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton. But that’s not all, as Minnesota is also terrible against left-handed pitching. They have just a 91 wRC+, the 6th worst in baseball, as well as a 27.8% strikeout rate, which is the 2nd highest in the league.
If you look up the definition of dominant, Sonny Gray pitching at home would be the synonym. The veteran has been absolutely incredible this season with a 1.94 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP in 11 starts, so it’s hard to believe he’s been even better at home, but it’s true. At Target Field, Gray has a 1.27 ERA with a 0.862 WHIP in 6 starts. He’s limited hitters to a .198 batting average and .520 OPS during those 35.1 innings at home. The under is 4-2 when Gray starts at home, and as you might have guessed, the 2 times the total went over was due to the excess scoring from Minnesota, which I don’t see happening against Allen. It’s also important to note that this is Gray’s second start of the season against the Guardians, and the first one ended with just 7 runs. However, that was with Cleveland scoring 3 runs on just 4 hits and having just a .211 batting average and .179 xBA against Gray. Both bullpens are still well rested since Thursday’s game featured an excellent starting pitching matchup, so runs should be scarce from the first pitch to the last. I’m confident taking the under in Minnesota on Saturday night.
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