We’re nearly into the weekend of Major League Baseball, but first, we have a 14-game slate on Friday. The action begins with 6:40 pm ET first pitches in Tampa Bay, Detroit, Cincinnati and Miami and concludes with a 10:15 pm ET start in San Francisco between the red-hot Diamondbacks and Giants.
Let’s get into my MLB best bets for Friday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Atlanta Braves -1.5 (-105) over Cincinnati Reds
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
I’ve been trying to back AJ Smith-Shawver for a while now, but he keeps getting the short end of the stick with rain delays and postponements. However, today will be his first start since June 15, so he’s as rested as can be. Smith-Shawver is a 20-year-old prospect who made his MLB debut at the beginning of June and has found a spot in the Atlanta rotation for the time being. After throwing 2.1 scoreless innings in relief in his first MLB appearance, the rookie has made 2 starts against the Nationals and Rockies and has been phenomenal. In 11 innings, Smith-Shawver has given up 3 earned runs and just 9 hits while striking out 8. Facing the Nats and Rockies was a soft launch into the role of a starter, but it didn’t take long for the 20-year-old to have his first big test. The Cincinnati Reds have won 11 games in a row and are as hot as can be, but luckily for Smith-Shawver, he’s backed by the best offense in baseball.
The Braves have won 8 straight games, and only once has it been by a single run. Atlanta has been blowing teams out of the water and it starts with their offense. During their 8-game win streak, the Braves have scored 65 runs, which comes out to 8.125 per game. The best part about the Atlanta offense is that it’s not just Ronald Acuna Jr., Matt Olson and Austin Riley doing all the work, it’s also the bottom half of their lineup like Orlando Arcia, Michael Harris II and Marcell Ozuna. The Braves offense is dangerous from the leadoff spot to the 9-hole, and that’s not what Luke Weaver and his 6.47 ERA want to hear! The Reds starter has had a rough season with things only getting worse as the right-hander has a 10.13 ERA in 3 starts in June. In 3 starts this month against the Dodgers, Royals and Astros, Weaver has given up 15 runs and 21 hits in just 13.1 innings. Heading into tonight’s start, Weaver ranks in the bottom 20% of pitchers in xBA, xSLG, barrel rate and chase rate – all things that measure how successful a pitcher can be. The Reds’ 11-game win streak was fun, but the Braves’ offense should end that tonight.
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Tampa Bay Rays F5 -0.5 (-150) over Kansas City Royals
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
I’ve had this spot circled on my calendar for weeks. Zach Eflin in the first 5 innings at home has been a cash cow all season. Tampa Bay is a perfect 7-0 on the first 5 innings run line when Eflin starts at home, and the Rays average 5.71 runs in the first 5 frames during those 7 games. It’s no luck either — Eflin is just dominant at home. In 7 starts at the Trop, Eflin is 7-0 with a 1.85 ERA and has limited hitters to a .196 batting average. That’s a huge change from his 1-3 record, 5.08 ERA and .258 batting average against on the road. On Friday night, he gets an easier assignment against a Royals team that has just 21 wins… and we’re nearing the end of June. And more importantly for this bet, Kansas City also averages the fewest runs in the first 5 innings this season at just 1.97, but it drops to 1.73 when they’re on the road.
Zack Greinke turned back the clock in May and had an excellent month. After a horrendous April which saw him go 0-3 with a 6.66 ERA, Greinke bounced back with a 2.30 ERA and 0.83 WHIP in May. However, that month is starting to seem a long time ago because he is 0-2 with a 7.53 ERA and 1.33 WHIP in 3 starts in June. He’s faced the Marlins, Reds and Angels and has given up 12 runs and 18 hits in 14.1 innings — but it gets worse for Grienke. This game will be in Tampa Bay, which gives Eflin a huge advantage, and puts Greinke at a massive disadvantage. In 7 starts away from Kansas City, Greinke is 0-4 with a 6.15 ERA. I’m backing Eflin to stay perfect in the first 5 innings at home for a 2-unit play.
Check out today’s YRFI/NRFI Best Bets and our MLB mega parlay
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