It’s a massive day in baseball with 16 games taking place, starting with a 1:10 first pitch in Detroit between the Braves and Tigers. However, my best bet of the day focuses on the last game of the day in Los Angeles between the White Sox and Dodgers. I really wanted to find a way to fade Austin Gomber in Boston, but with the way the Sox have been hitting and the rain headed towards Massachusetts, I’ll stick with the sunnier game in SoCal.
Before we get into today’s picks, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks.
Let’s get into my MLB best bet for Wednesday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Los Angeles Dodgers -1.5 (-130) over Chicago White Sox
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
If you followed my 3-star pick last night, you would have been happy with the result of last night’s Dodgers game. Los Angeles covered their -1.5 run line without much of a sweat, as I had hoped, and tonight’s matchup is an even more lopsided game in favor of the home team. Last night, I had the Dodgers’ run line priced at +100 odds which felt like theft, but tonight, we have to pay a premium on Clayton Kershaw. DraftKings has Los Angeles’ run line priced at -130, and I snagged it. I had their run line projected closer to -145, so I see value in this number.
This game involves one of my favorite spots in the sport: Kershaw at home. The lefty has been incredible this season with a 2.95 ERA and a 3.40 xERA, and he must be drinking from the fountain of the youth because his strikeout and hard-hit rates are some of his best numbers in years. However, at home, he’s even better. In 5 starts at Dodger Stadium, the southpaw has a 1.45 ERA with a 0.710 WHIP and has limited hitters to a .180 batting average and a .481 OPS. He’s been outstanding on his home mound this season, and tonight’s opponent shouldn’t break that trend. The White Sox rank 20th in wRC+ with a 25.5% strikeout rate against left-handed pitchers in the last 30 days. And to make matters worse, Chicago also finds itself in a bit of a slump. Since June 1, the White Sox have a .192 batting average, a .264 on-base percentage, .586 OPS and a 58 wRC+. They also own the 3rd highest strikeout rate and the 8th lowest walk rate during the last 2 weeks, so baserunners have been hard to come by for the Sox. They managed just 3 hits in last night’s game which tells you all you need to know about the Southsiders’ struggles right now.
The Dodgers mash right-handed pitching. They have a 113 wRC+ against right-handers this season which only trails the Rays and Rangers. On Wednesday night, they take on the veteran Mike Clevinger, who hasn’t had the best time in Dodger Stadium in his career. Clevinger is 0-2 with an 11.25 ERA in 2 career starts in L.A., and a lot of the damage against him has come from this same Dodgers lineup. Against Clevinger in their careers, Mookie Betts is 7-for-17 (.412), Will Smith is 6-for-10 (.600), J.D. Martinez is 6-for-9 (.667) and Max Muncy is 3-for-7 (.429). In short, Clevinger is going to have a hard time getting through the top of the order, and that’s without even mentioning Freddie Freeman! All in all, the Dodgers have the advantage in every aspect of this game. I’m confident playing their run line as a 2-unit play.
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