To wrap up another week of baseball, we have an action-packed slate of 15 games today. The day begins with an 11:35 am first pitch in Detroit and finishes with Sunday Night Baseball in the Bronx between the Red Sox and Yankees.
It’s a very exciting day with plenty of great pitching matchups, and I have found 2 picks that I really like for today. Before we get into today’s picks, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks.
Let’s get into my MLB best bets for Sunday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Cincinnati Reds F5 ML (+105) over St. Louis Cardinals
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
I was able to get this pick at plus odds, but the line has started to shift quickly in favor of the Reds. I would still play this pick down to -110, but be sure to shop around for the best odds. On the mound for today’s series finale is Hunter Greene for Cincinnati and Adam Wainwright for the Cardinals in what feels like a “master and grasshopper” situation. At 23 years old, Greene is one of the hardest throwers in the game and has an excellent secondary pitch to go along with his triple-digits fastball. But for the 41-year-old Wainwright, he is in the twilight of his career and his numbers are showing it. He has a 5.97 ERA paired with a 6.61 xERA after just 6 starts, and it’s time to hit the panic button on the veteran. Wainwright has allowed 7 hits or more in 5 of his 6 starts and has yet to complete 6 innings, so he is getting hit hard in a short stint of time. One of his 6 starts has come against this Reds team, and they were able to smack Wainwright around for 5 runs and 8 hits in just 5.2 innings. It’s not too surprising because Cincinnati feasts on sinkers and fastballs, and Wainwright’s sinker has resulted in hitters having a .422 batting average and just a 9.3% whiff rate.
This will be Greene’s first start since June 1, so this is the first time he’s had more than 6 days off all season. The extended break was due to a stiff hip, but Greene threw a bullpen this week and said he “felt great” — which means he is coming into this start at 100%. That’s bad news for the Cardinals because giving a pitcher that relies on his high-velocity fastball a few extra days of rest means that pitch could have more life to it. On the season, Greene has a 3.92 ERA paired with a 3.50 xERA and has limited hitters to just a .208 xBA, far below the .245 MLB average. He’s also increased his strikeout rate to an absurd 33% which places him in the 92nd percentile among pitchers. This will be his 8th start away from Great American Ball Park, and in his other 7 starts, Green has a 3.11 ERA and has limited hitters to a .222 batting average. For the icing on the cake, Greene has a 2.81 ERA and a .196 batting average against in 3 starts at Busch Stadium. If Greene can hold down Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado, I like Cincinnati’s chances to be winning after 5 innings.
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San Diego Padres F5 -0.5 (-122) over Colorado Rockies
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
This is a spot that I look for each time the Rockies play: are they facing a lefty? Colorado is the worst team in baseball against left-handed pitchers this season. After a terrible April against southpaws, I was curious to see if the Rockies could turn it around in May and June. However, a zebra doesn’t change its stripes because the Rockies have been just as bad — or even worse — against lefties recently. In the last 30 days Colorado has a .221 batting average, a .275 on-base percentage, a 27.9% strikeout rate and just a 53 wRC+ against southpaw pitching. And since Opening Day the Rockies rank 29th in on-base percentage and OPS as well as 30th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. So as you might guess, Colorado is facing another lefty pitcher today. That southpaw is Blake Snell, and although he had a rough start to the season, he’s been much better recently. In his last 17 innings, the left-hander has struck out 21 batters while giving up only 1 run and 9 hits. In that time, he has held opponents to a .153 batting average, a .198 xBA, and only a 24% hard-hit rate. Unsurprisingly, in those 3 games, the Padres are 3-0 on the first 5 innings run line.
The Rockies went into full desperation mode with their starting rotation. They have lost Ryan Feltner, German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela already this season, so they have had to create a rotation with a pair of starters and a lot of long relievers. One of those relievers is today’s starter, Dinelson Lamet. However, it wasn’t like Lamet was having success in the bullpen that earned him the promotion. In 12 games in relief, he allowed 16 runs, 14 hits with 12 walks in just 10.2 innings. Although it sounds like it couldn’t get any worse, it did. In 2 starts he has allowed 8 runs and 13 hits in 6 innings, and opponents have a .419 batting average to go along with a 1.116 OPS. To no surprise, the Rockies are 0-2 on the first 5 innings run line in those 2 games. They weren’t close losses, either; they were losing by 6 runs at the end of 5 innings in both outings. I’m taking the bullpens out of it and focusing on the starting pitching matchup which provides the Padres with a huge advantage.
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