May the 4th be with you! Today’s slate is smaller than normal since a lot of teams are traveling for their weekend series, which also means the teams playing today are going to play early so that they can travel in the evening. Only 1 of the 10 games today has a first-pitch scheduled for after 6:00 pm, so without further ado let’s get right into it.
Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks. And now, let’s get into my MLB best bet for Thursday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Baltimore Orioles F5 -0.5 (-125) over Kansas City Royals
Available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
At the top of my “pitchers I would consider fading every start” list is Jordan Lyles. The journeyman has landed in Kansas City this season, and to no surprise he has been terrible. He has a 6.11 ERA with a 6.03 xERA after 6 starts, and he’s setting some new career highs in year 13. Lyles has a 13% barrel rate and a .547 xSLG, which has translated to opponents having a .866 OPS against him. For this bet we’re just focusing on his time through the first half of the game, which is likely as far as he will go anyways. In the first 5 innings, opponents have a .253 batting average with a .824 OPS against Lyles. He is one of the most hittable starting pitchers in the big leagues right now, which is why I’ve enjoyed fading him each time. However, Kansas City has not had as much fun as I have considering it is 0-5-1 on the first 5 run-line when Lyles starts this season. And looking at a bigger sample size for the Royals, they are 4-11 on the run line at home this year and 2-8 in their last 10.
As expected, Grayson Rodriguez struggled in his first few starts in Baltimore. He is a 23-year-old who barely had any time in Triple-A, either, so the bright lights of the big leagues seemed a lot brighter. But Rodriguez has looked completely different in his last 2 starts, which makes me think that he’s turning the corner. A quick disclaimer, though” both outings were against the Tigers. Obviously they are not the strongest offense in the game, but Rodriguez still allowed just 7 hits with 15 strikeouts during 10.0 scoreless innings of work. He limited Detroit to a .194 batting average with a .212 xBA during those outings, so his success was no fluke. Rodriguez will face a Kansas City lineup that ranks 30th in first 5 innings runs per game while his own offense ranks 7th, so there’s a huge mismatch in the first half of the game.
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