Wednesday brings an unusually large 16-game MLB slate because of a doubleheader, but that also means that baseball is on all day. The Mets and Tigers start the day with a 1:40 pm ET first pitch in Detroit and the Mariners and Athletics conclude the day with a 9:40 pm ET start in Oakland. With such a huge slate, there are plenty of opportunities to make a profit, and I’ve found some edges that I really like.
Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith, and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks. And now, let’s get into my MLB best bets for Wednesday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Chicago Cubs -1.5 (-115) over Washington Nationals
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Fading pitchers making their MLB debut is one of my favorite spots. While it doesn’t happen all that often, it is usually worth the play when it does. That scenario is live tonight in D.C. as Jake Irvin will make his MLB debut for the Nationals. Irvin has appeared in only 3 full seasons in the Minor Leagues as he was sidelined for 2 years with Tommy John surgery in 2020 and 2021. The right-hander was once a highly-rated prospect in the Nationals system, but he’s dropped off a little in the last few seasons and isn’t projected to be the future ace of the team. Analysts expect Irvin to be a back-of-the-rotation type of pitcher or a long reliever. It’s not hard to see why they think that since he has a career ERA near 4 in the Minors, and he doesn’t appear ready for the bright lights of the big leagues. The right-hander has made only 5 appearances in Triple-A and has a 5.64 ERA with a 1.52 WHIP in 22.1 innings. Irvin has a decent fastball-curveball combination, but his command and vulnerability to extra-base hits worry me.
Marcus Stroman has the 6th-highest ground-ball rate among starting pitchers this season. His sinker and slurve have been an excellent 1-2 punch which has led to hitters putting the ball on the ground over 60% of the time. Stroman’s pitch type will be crucial for his success against the Nats because Keibert Ruiz, Jeimer Candelario and Joey Meneses all have negative Run Values against sinkers. Those are 3 of Washington’s biggest bats, so if Stroman can minimize the damage from those hitters, I like his chances of working around the rest of the order. Another disadvantage the Washington offense has tonight is that although they have smashed left-handed pitching, they have struggled severely against right-handers. The Nationals rank 4th in batting average with a 105 wRC+ against southpaws, yet against right-handers, they rank 28th in OPS and have just a 73 wRC+. Washington is 3-12 at home and just 5-10 on the run line, and with Irvin on the bump for the Nats, I can’t see an outcome that doesn’t end with a multi-run Cubs win.
Check out our +912 MLB mega parlay for Wednesday
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Los Angeles Angels F5 -0.5 (+100) over St. Louis Cardinals
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
This could be the greatest pitching mismatch we see all season. Shohei Ohtani, one of the greatest pitchers this game has ever seen, will take on Miles Mikolas, who just got his ERA below 6. Ohtani is off to one of the greatest starts to a season in baseball history, considering he’s hitting .294 at the plate along with a 1.85 ERA on the mound. Fortunately for the Angels, he gets to do both today. On the rubber, Ohtani has been barreled just 3 times in 6 starts and has a career-high 35.1% strikeout. He ranks in the 90th percentile or better in average exit velocity, hard-hit rate, xBA, xSLG, strikeout rate, whiff rate, and, well, you get the idea. Perhaps the best way to explain his dominance is that opponents are just 11-for-108 (.102) against Ohtani. And in the first half of the game, Ohtani has allowed a batting average of .100 or worse in 4 of the 5 innings. That has helped the Angels go a perfect 6-0 on the first 5 run-line when Ohtani starts.
The Cardinals have been one of the worst baseball teams in the first 5 innings this year. Only the Kansas City Royals have a worse run-line record in the first half of the game. St. Louis is 4-10 ATS in the first 5 innings at home but just 1-10 in their last 11 games. It’s been a combination of averaging the 7th-fewest runs and allowing the 11th-most runs in the first half that have made them such a poor team in the first few innings. On the hill for the Cardinals will be Mikolas, who has a 5.97 ERA but a 6.58 xERA after 6 starts. The right-hander has a 6.11 ERA in the first 5 innings, but more worrisome is that hitters have a .321 batting average, .366 on-base percentage and a .896 OPS against him in that time. He will face an Angels lineup that mashes Mikolas’ 2 most common pitches — his fastball and slider. And for the icing on the cake, Los Angeles ranks in the top 10 in batting average, OBP, SLG and OPS in the last 2 weeks. I’m backing the Angels to stay perfect in the first 5 innings with Ohtani on the bump as a 2-unit play.
Check out today’s YRFI/NRFI best bets!
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