Welcome to another week of baseball. We have a lot of afternoon baseball today, and both of my best bets are in the early slate of games. Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks.
Let’s get into my MLB best bets for Monday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Baltimore Orioles ML (-136) over Cleveland Guardians
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
It’s no secret that the Guardians rely on their pitching to win games, but they’ve been reliant on it to a fault this season. Their offense, filled with star players Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, Ahmed Rosario and Josh Bell has drastically underperformed in every aspect. They rank 30th in runs per game, which means the Oakland Athletics, who are 10-45, average more runs per game than Cleveland. No way around it – that’s embarrassing. Their offensive struggles originate from their inability to hit right-handed pitching, which once again has them ranked at the bottom. The Guardians rank 27th in batting average, 27th in on-base percentage, 29th in OPS and 30th in wRC+ against right-handers. And on the hill for the Orioles will be the right-handed Tyler Wells.
The Baltimore starting lineup has been released, and Adley Rutschman’s name has been left off it. Obviously, that hurts a little bit, but it gives us a better price on the O’s now. Baltimore will be facing the lefty Logan Allen this afternoon, and I think he is in for a long day. Before getting into the matchup, Allen is due for negative regression. He has a 3.31 ERA but a 4.93 xERA and a 1.44 WHIP which means he is stranding runners at an unattainable rate. Allen has a barrel rate above 10% and a hard-hit rate near 45%, so it’s baffling to see him with a respectable ERA. He’s been getting very lucky this season, and I think the Orioles are the team to turn his luck around for the worse. Baltimore has a 118 wRC+ and ranks in the top 10 in nearly every category against left-handed pitching. And even better for the Orioles is that Allen relies on his fastball for nearly 50% of pitches, and the Baltimore lineup ranks 7th against fastballs this season. This is a great matchup for the home team, and at a great price, they’re worth a shot.
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Texas Rangers -1.5 (-110) over Detroit Tigers
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
As a Red Sox fan, I miss seeing Nathan Eovaldi take the hill at Fenway. But the right-hander not being on my team any more hasn’t stopped me from keeping a close eye on him this season. I backed Eovaldi in his last start in Pittsburgh, which turned out to be one of his best starts of the season since the right-hander threw a complete game and gave up just 1 run and 6 hits. But outings like that are not uncommon for Eovaldi recently because he has a 0.86 ERA in his last 5 starts, which has led to Texas winning 4 of the 5 outings, and all 4 wins were by several runs. Eovaldi’s dominance in the last month is no fluke either because he has limited hitters to a .158 average, .195 xBA, 37% hard-hit rate and a 5% barrel rate. Opponents have struggled against his fastball-split finger combination, but one of the worst teams in baseball against those pitches is, drumroll please, the Detroit Tigers. Detroit ranks 28th against fastballs, barely ahead of the Guardians and Athletics, and 21st against split fingers, so their offense is a great matchup for Eovaldi.
This season, only the Rays and the Braves have been better against left-handed pitching than the Rangers. That’s a pretty good group to be a part of, and although Texas is behind those two powerhouse offenses, the Rangers still have a 130 wRC+ against southpaws, which is incredible. But besides wRC+, they also have a .292 batting average (5th), .368 on-base percentage (3rd) and .825 OPS (3rd) against left-handed pitching. That obviously encompasses two long months worth of baseball, so I decided to look at how they’ve done more recently against southpaws, and I still wasn’t disappointed. In their last 7 games against lefty starters, the Rangers are 6-1 and have won the 6 games by 5, 6, 3, 8, 8, and 9 runs.
The lefty that stands in their way today is Matthew Boyd, a 9-year veteran who has a 5.74 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP this season. And if you know me, you know I rely on home and away splits to tell me about the pitcher. For Boyd, his home splits tell me exactly what I want to hear. In 4 starts at Comerica Park, Boyd is 0-3 with an 8.64 ERA and a 2.040 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .324 with a .865 OPS against him in those 4 games, and all 3 of Detroit’s losses with Boyd on the mound at home came by several runs. For the cherry on top, the Rangers are 6-0 following a loss in their last 6 games, so I’m confident backing Texas for a 2-unit play on Monday afternoon.
You can also read our MLB mega parlay and player prop picks for Monday’s slate
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