As we edge closer to the weekend, we are stuck with a smaller slate of 10 games today. Several teams have the day off for travel and rest purposes, but 20 teams are still taking the field today. I’ve found 2 edges that I like for my best bets for today.
Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith, and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks. And now, let’s get into my MLB best bets for Thursday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Tampa Bay Rays F5 -0.5 (-118) over Toronto Blue Jays
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
This undefeated spot is back in action today as Zach Eflin takes the mound for the series finale at the Trop. The right-hander has been good this season with a 3.45 ERA, but his home and away splits have provided insight into when the best time is to back Eflin. The answer would be when he’s on his home mound, as the comforts of home go a long way for the veteran. At the Trop, Eflin is 5-0 with a 2.40 ERA and a 0.767 WHIP in 30 innings — excellent numbers. But on the road, his ERA balloons to 5.29, so it’s best to back him in Tampa Bay. That’s exactly what we’re doing today, and more specifically, in the first half of the game. The Rays are a perfect 5-0 on the first 5 run line when Eflin starts at home with a chance to improve to 6-0 against Alek Manoah and the Blue Jays this afternoon.
It’s been a disastrous season for Manoah, who has taken 10 steps backwards in his development this season. He began the season with bad starts every few weeks but managed to end April with a 3.86 ERA. However, in 4 outings in May, his ERA has peaked at 5.59 with a 1.91 WHIP. Manoah’s control is nowhere to be found as he’s logged 13 walks in 19.1 innings this month, and his xBA has skyrocketed to .282. In just the first half of the game, Manoah has a 5.77 ERA and is allowing hitters to have a .292 average and a .898 OPS. The Blue Jays have not won a first half of a game with Manoah on the mound since April 11 against the Tigers, and one of their many losses in those 6 weeks was against the Rays. Tampa Bay won the first 5 innings 7-1 against Manoah and the Jays in Toronto in the middle of April, and now on their home turf (literally), I think we see another Rays first-half win.
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Miami Marlins ML (-125) over Colorado Rockies
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Simply put, the Rockies can’t hit left-handed pitching. We’re nearly 2 months into the season, and Colorado’s biggest weakness has been on full display. Their lineup ranks 26th in on-base percentage, 28th in slugging percentage, 28th in OPS and 30th in wRC+ versus lefty pitching. The Rockies hold a 66 wRC+ against southpaw pitching, which is obviously horrendous, but it’s also the worst in the league by a wide margin. The Guardians rank 29th in that category but have a 74 wRC+, so it’s not like the Rockies are close to slipping out of last place. They’ve lost their last 4 games against a left-handed starter, and on the bump for Miami on Thursday afternoon is Braxton Garrett. The southpaw has faced a wide range of lineup talent against lefty pitching, including the Giants, Reds and Marlins, who all rank in the bottom 10 in wRC+ against lefties. In those 3 starts, Garrett has allowed 2 runs, 9 hits and 19 strikeouts in 17 innings.
Unlike the Rockies, the Marlins thrive off left-handed pitching. They rank 5th in batting average, 6th in slugging percentage, 9th in OPS and 9th in wRC+ against southpaws. The left-hander on the mound for Colorado will be Kyle Freeland, who was just rocked in his last outing in Texas. The Rangers shelled him for 8 runs and 9 hits in just 2 innings, and although the Rangers’ lineup looks a little different than Miami’s, they rank just 1 place better than them in batting average against lefties. Colorado has been outhit in every game this series, which is now 6 games in a row of being outhit, and I think that will continue en route to a Miami win at Coors Field.
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