It’s a big day in baseball today with games starting in the early evening and going throughout the night. All 30 teams are taking the field which means there are plenty of bets to choose from, and I’ve honed in on 2 games that I like for my best bets of the day.
Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith, and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks. And now, let’s get into my MLB best bets for Tuesday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Texas Rangers F5 -0.5 (-130) over Pittsburgh Pirates
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Pittsburgh was able to beat Dane Dunning and the Rangers last night, which surprised me to say the least. However, I’m betting that they can’t do it again tonight with Nathan Eovaldi on the hill for Texas. Eovaldi was on a 29.2 scoreless inning streak going into his last start against Atlanta, and although that streak is now broken, tonight provides an excellent opportunity to start a new one. The veteran comes into this matchup with a 2.83 ERA and a 2.89 xERA, along with the highest strikeout rate and the lowest barrel rate in his last 6 seasons. An increase in strikeouts has been good to see from Eovaldi, but the real difference maker has been the lower barrel rate since it was above 10% last season and is now barely above 4%. Tonight’s start will be Eovaldi’s 6th on the road, and so far, he has enjoyed pitching away from home. His ERA sits at 1.83 with a 0.932 WHIP, and hitters have a weak .213 batting average and a .549 OPS.
Rich Hill has been one of the luckiest pitchers in baseball. After 9 starts, the lefty has a 3.80 ERA paired with a 5.87 xERA and a 4.62 FIP. He has been fortunate enough to face some poor lefty-hitting lineups recently in the Tigers and Rockies, who rank 26th and 30th in wRC+ against southpaws. But on Tuesday night, he takes on a Rangers lineup that ranks 1st in on-base percentage, 4th in slugging percentage and 3rd in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. Combine that with Hill’s 5.25 ERA and .307 opponent batting average at home, and you should have a lot of Texas runs. Those runs should be coming early and often too, since Hill has a 4.05 ERA and a .274 opponent batting average in the first 5 innings this season. I’m taking the bullpens out of this bet and taking the highest-scoring first-half team by the run line for a 2-unit play.
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San Francisco Giants vs Minnesota Twins NRFI (-130)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
All we need is 6 combined outs between Alex Cobb and Sonny Gray without a man touching home, and we win. That’s the beauty, and sometimes pain, of a NRFI because the bet is over in a matter of minutes. But when you can target pitchers who excel in the opening frame you can be quite profitable in this market. That’s the case tonight in Minnesota between a pair of veterans who thrive in the first inning. Cobb, a 12-year veteran, has a 1.94 ERA with a 1.35 WHIP this season which is impressive, but he’s been even better in the first inning. He has yet to allow an earned run in the first frame through 9 starts because he is limiting hitters to a .129 batting average with a .335 OPS. Opponents have a 29% strikeout rate and have not recorded an extra-base hit against him in the first, so he’s been a perfect candidate for the NRFI.
The comforts of home go a long way for some pitchers, and that includes Gray. The savvy veteran is 3-0 with a 0.89 ERA and 0.857 WHIP in 5 starts in Minnesota. He’s limited hitters to a .181 batting average and a .478 OPS in those 5 outings, and the success starts in the first frame. He has allowed only 1 first-inning run all season and has held hitters to a .152 batting average and a .455 OPS. Gray has a 36.4% strikeout rate in the opening frame as well, and I expect him to face LaMonte Wade Jr., Thairo Estrada and J.D. Davis in the top of the first. Those hitters are 0-for-5 with 2 strikeouts against Gray in their careers. I’m anticipating a slow start in Minnesota, and it starts with a scoreless first frame.
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