Sunday brings us a 15.5-game slate – I add the .5 since the Mets and Nationals will also be resuming a suspended game in the 3rd inning. But it’s a huge day in baseball with action starting before noon in Cleveland and ending with Sunday Night Baseball in Boston, and I have some best bets to make for the jam-packed slate.
Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith, and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks. And now, let’s get into my MLB best bets for Sunday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Tampa Bay Rays F5 ML (-124) over New York Yankees
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
Aaron Judge is back, and the Yankees’ offense is back to being elite, right? Not exactly. Before you say: “But they’ve won 4 of the 5 games with Judge back”, 2 of those games were against the Athletics, who are basically a Minor League team at this point. The other wins came against the Rays as last-minute comebacks which is why I’m avoiding the later innings and just sticking with the first half of the game for this bet. Essentially, I’m targeting the Rays to rip into Clarke Schmidt early on. The 27-year-old has a 5.35 ERA with a 5.47 xERA after 8 starts, and he’s become a valuable pitcher to fade in the first 5 innings. In the first 5 innings, Schmidt has a 5.08 ERA and is allowing a .294 batting average with a .868 OPS.
There is no better team against right-handed pitching than the Tampa Bay Rays. They rank 1st in on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, ISO and wRC+ against righties in 41 games. In case you’re wondering, they rank 4th in batting average, but a .268 average against right-handed pitching is still excellent. On the bump for the Rays will be Zach Eflin, who comes into this game sporting a 2.91 ERA and a 3.12 xERA. He’s allowing just a .238 batting average in the first half of the game, and for whatever reason, Eflin seems to love playing during the day. The veteran is 3-0 with a 1.06 ERA and just a 0.588 WHIP in 3 starts during the daytime, and 3-0 in the first 5 innings too. Both bullpens are decimated by injuries right now, so I’m not taking a chance on either arm barn. Give me the Rays to score early and often in the Bronx.
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Boston Red Sox team total over 4.5 (-115)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
I refuse to believe Miles Mikolas has improved. He has been mediocre in his last few starts, which is a huge improvement from his disastrous start to the season. Through 8 outings, hitters have a .326 batting average with a .316 xBA, and while both numbers have gone down in recent weeks, opponents are still hitting above .300 against him. And now the setting shifts to the hitter-friendly conditions of Fenway Park, which is ranked as the 3rd-best park for hitters this season. Tonight’s game will be this week’s edition of Sunday Night Baseball, and they couldn’t have picked a better night for it since the temperature will be in the mid-60s and the wind will be blowing out towards right field which makes it a perfect night for runs.
As mentioned above in the previous best bet, the Rays are the #1 team in the league against right-handed pitching. Who’s ranked #2 you ask? Great question — it’s the Red Sox. Boston ranks 1st in batting average, slugging percentage, OPS and wOBA against right-handed pitching this season. In their last game against a right-handed starter, they tagged Adam Wainwright for 4 runs and 7 hits in 5 innings en route to scoring 6 runs. If the Sox were able to tee off against Wainwright, I like their chances against a guy with a 10.1% barrel rate and a 46.4% sweet-spot percentage. And once Mikolas’ day is done, Boston will face an inconsistent Cardinals bullpen that doesn’t have many reliable arms besides Ryan Helsley. They’ve also used Drew VerHagen, Giovanny Gallegos and Andre Pallante a lot in the last 4 games, so the responsibility of the later innings might fall onto different shoulders today. In the end, I think the Sox can finish with at least 5 runs.
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