Yesterday was another positive day with my best bets as I went 1-1 but cashed a +130 underdog winner for a slight profit. Today, we’re limited to just 6 games as 18 of the 30 teams have an off day or travel day. That has limited the amount of edges today, but I still found one that I like enough to make my best bet of the day.
Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith, and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks. And now, let’s get into my MLB best bet for Thursday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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San Diego Padres vs Minnesota Twins: NRFI (-118)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
When taking a NRFI, I look for 2 things: the first being a strong pitching matchup and the second being two weaker offenses. Well, this game checks off both of those boxes. Yu Darvish will start for the visiting Padres, and he will be countered by Bailey Ober. While most baseball fans know Darvish, Ober isn’t a household name, mostly because he only has 34 career starts. The College of Charleston product has been solid for the Twins in the last 2 seasons as his career ERA sits at 3.51, but it’s been his first 3 starts of this season that have really elevated him. He’s allowed only 2 runs and 10 hits in 18.1 innings this year while limiting hitters to a .209 xBA. Although the Padres offense seems menacing with Fernando Tatis Jr., Manny Machado and Juan Soto at the top, San Diego has the 3rd-worst team batting average on the road.
Coming off an excellent set of starts for Japan in the World Baseball Classic, Darvish has continued his success into the first month of the MLB season. The veteran has a 3.19 ERA with a 3.14 xERA in 6 starts, but more importantly for this bet, he’s been solid in the first 3 outs. Hitters are just 3-for-21 (.143) with 7 strikeouts against Darvish in the first frame. One of the first few hitters that Darvish will face is Carlos Correa, who has heard more boos than cheers in the last few weeks. The boo birds should continue to sing on Thursday since Correa is 4-for-19 (.211) with 7 strikeouts in his career against Darvish. But as a whole, the Twins’ offense is hitting .158 in their last 6 games, so I’m not too worried about a run being scored in the bottom half of the frame. I like a scoreless start in Minnesota today.
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