Welcome to another jam-packed Wednesday of baseball. There is plenty of action all day that starts a little bit after noon and goes all day, and I’ve focused on a couple of afternoon games for my best bets of the day.
Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith, and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks. And now, let’s get into my MLB best bets for Wednesday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs Milwaukee Brewers F5 under 4 (-115)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Although these teams are very different, they both share the same weakness: lefties. Heading into Tuesday night’s game, the Dodgers had a .193 batting average against southpaws which was the worst mark in baseball. Not far above them in the rankings are the Brewers at just .213, so both teams are far below the average against lefties. Milwaukee also ranks 30th in slugging percentage, 30th in OPS and 30th in wRC+ against lefties, which makes them the worst club in baseball against southpaws. Unfortunately for them, they have to face Clayton Kershaw. The veteran ace has been fantastic with a 2.53 ERA with a 0.98 WHIP in 7 starts, but more importantly for this wager, he’s been even better in the first half of the game. Kershaw has limited hitters to a .207 batting average with a .589 OPS in the first 5 innings, and he will face a Brewers lineup that averages the 9th fewest first-half runs per game.
Before Tuesday’s first pitch, the Dodgers were dead last in batting average against lefties at just .193. For some odd reason, their lineup just can’t hit lefties. Los Angeles’ two best hitters, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith, were a combined .210 against southpaws before last night. On Wednesday afternoon, they draw a matchup against Wade Miley, who has been a pleasant surprise with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP in 6 outings. But at home, his ERA drops to 1.59. I’m staying away from the bullpens since Los Angeles used nearly every reliever last night after Noah Syndergaard left the game after 1 inning, so the first 5 under is my best bet in this game.
Check out our MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets for today!
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Washington Nationals F5 ML (+130) over San Francisco Giants
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
The Giants have a better record (by 1 game) than the Nationals, but that is about the only advantage they have in this game. Washington has the much better starting pitcher in this matchup with Josiah Gray, while the Giants will counter with Sean Manaea. Gray has become a rising star in the Nationals’ starting rotation and is starting to blossom into the pitcher Washington thought he could be when they traded for him a few seasons ago. After getting knocked around in his season debut, Gray has been dominant in his next 6 starts. His numbers in those 6 starts are as follows: 2.14 ERA, .238 opponent batting average, .201 xBA, 23% strikeout rate and just a 29% hard-hit rate. And in the first 5 innings, he’s limited opponents to a .248 batting average and has allowed just 7 runs in the first half of the game in his last 6 starts.
To put it bluntly, Sean Manaea has been really bad. He has a 7.33 ERA, 8.02 xERA and a .299 xBA in 7 appearances. Opponents are hitting .278 with a .957 OPS against him in 23.1 innings, and his last outing gave me no confidence in the lefty. He had a layup of an outing against the worst lefty-hitting lineup in baseball, the Brewers, and he still got rocked for 4 runs and 6 hits in 5 innings, and the Milwaukee offense had a .316 batting average and a .349 xBA against him. If he can’t limit the Brewers, I have no faith he can limit the Nationals. While Milwaukee has a 69 wRC+ against left-handed pitching, Washington has a 105 wRC+. The Nats are an above-average team against southpaws that should feast on Manaea, especially in the first 5 innings since that’s where the lefty has a 7.16 ERA and is allowing a .289 batting average. At +130 odds, it’s definitely worth the bet.
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