We’re nearly a week into the MLB season and pitchers are starting to make their 2nd start of the season. With that in mind, I’ve identified 2 games with value in today’s 13-game slate. The first game involves fading the infamous Patrick Corbin, and the second game is backing Logan Webb and Dylan Cease after a pair of strong Opening Day starts. Let’s check it out, but be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for our picks on all of Wednesday’s games.
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Tampa Bay Rays F5 team total over 2.5 (-125)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Did anyone predict the Rays to be the last team without a loss? If so, a pat on the back to you. Tampa Bay is a perfect 5-0 as their pitching ranks #2 in ERA and their offense ranks 3rd in OPS. On Wednesday afternoon, they have an excellent chance to improve to 6-0. Patrick Corbin will start for the Nationals, and it seems like he’s picking up right where he left off last season. The lefty was Washington’s Opening Day starter, which tells you all you need to know about the Nats, and he allowed 4 runs on 7 hits with 3 walks in 3 innings. His ERA sits at 6.00, but his xERA is double that at 12.77. Statistics indicate that Corbin actually did better than he was expected, considering he had a .347 xBA, .739 xSLG and a 50% hard-hit rate against Atlanta.
Unfortunately for Corbin, going from the Braves to the Rays isn’t a step down — if anything, it’s a step up. Tampa Bay has been hitting the cover off the ball as they rank 6th in batting average, 8th in on-base percentage and 3rd in OPS through 5 games. Also, their offense has scored at least 3 runs against every starter that they’ve faced. The wind will be blowing straight out, and Corbin should be in for another long, but short-lived outing. I’m taking Tampa Bay to score at least 3 runs in the first half of the game.
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San Francisco Giants vs Chicago White Sox F5 under 3.5 (-105)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
If you’re looking for good pitching, you’ve come to the right game. Each team will be rolling out its ace for their second start after a very successful season debut. Logan Webb made his Opening Day start at Yankee Stadium, and although he took a loss, it was an incredible performance. He threw 6 innings and was charged with 4 runs on 4 hits with 12 strikeouts. Two of the hits were home runs, and 3 of the runs he allowed came from the blasts. The 4th run came after he had left the game, and a reliever failed to minimize the damage.
Webb did a lot better than his stat line indicates, and his advanced metrics agreed as he had a .149 xBA with a .388 xSLG. Since Webb punched out 12 New York batters, there weren’t many outs via balls put in play. But of the 4 balls that were put in play that were outs, each one was a ground ball. That’s the key to Webb’s success since he throws a sinker, slider and changeup for about 95% of his pitches.
Dylan Cease’s Opening Day opponent was no slouch either. He had to face the Astros in Houston in their first game since winning the World Series. That’s a near-impossible task for most pitchers, except Cease. He went 6.1 innings allowing just 1 run on 2 hits while striking out 10 Houston hitters. And before you guess that he might have been lucky, he had a .143 xBA and .257 xSLG — no luck involved. His high-velocity fastball and wipeout slider have taken the league by storm, and the Giants are his next victim.
San Francisco has 50 strikeouts in 4 games, which is the 7th-most in baseball. However, it gets worse. Every team in baseball has played at least 5 games, except for the Giants. That makes 50 strikeouts in 4 games look even worse since that’s 12.5 strikeouts per game. And unfortunately for San Francisco, they have to face Cease in Chicago. At home last year, Cease limited opponents to a .185 batting average and had a 35% strikeout rate. I’m staying away from the bullpens and taking the first five innings under between two aces.
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