Another week of the MLB season is nearly in the books, but first we have a 15-game slate today. However, make sure to check the weather forecast before placing any bets today as rain is expected in Boston, D.C., Detroit, Queens, Minneapolis and Chicago. I analyzed today’s massive slate while considering the forecast and have one best bet to make for today.
Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith, and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks. And now, let’s get into my MLB best bet for Sunday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Tampa Bay Rays -1.5 (-115) over Chicago White Sox
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
It’s still April, but it feels like the White Sox have checked out of the season. Yesterday’s game was no different, even with a no-hitter going in the 7th inning! It started with Luis Robert not sprinting on a ground ball to first when he would have been safe if he had run through the bag. Robert was immediately benched, and whether it was a tight hamstring or not, it wasn’t a good look. And the crazy part of Chicago’s 12-3 loss yesterday was that Lance Lynn had a no-hitter going into the 7th before Tampa Bay ended the no-no and put up 10 runs in that inning. After that loss, the White Sox have lost 10 games in a row, and their offense has a .174 average with a .250 on-base percentage and a .547 OPS during that span — all 30th in their respective categories.
On the bump for Chicago will be Mike Clevinger, and he’s exactly the type of pitcher I look to fade when facing the Rays. Tampa Bay has been incredible against pitchers who rely on fastballs as their primary pitch, and Clevinger falls right into that category with 58.3% of pitches being 4-seamers. And it’s not a fastball that deserves to be thrown that much either, considering he ranks in just the 52nd percentile in fastball spin and opponents have whiffed just 13.7% of the time. Clevinger faced a fastball-smashing lineup in his last start too, and the Blue Jays tagged him for 6 runs and 7 hits in 5 innings. Now he faces a Tampa Bay lineup that has the top 2 hitters in baseball against 4-seamers – Randy Arozarena and Brandon Lowe. Both hitters have a Run Value of 8 or above against 4-seamers, and they’re not the only Tampa Bay hitters that club fastballs. Wander Franco, Christian Bethancourt, Harold Ramirez, Taylor Walls, Josh Lowe and Francisco Mejía all have positive Run Values against fastballs. Clevinger also has the unfortunate luck of being a righty because Tampa Bay ranks 1st in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS against right-handed pitchers this season.
The Rays will give Drew Rasmussen his 6th start of the season, and so far, he’s been elite. Rasmussen has thrown 3 scoreless outings already and will now face one of the weakest lineups in baseball. His ability to minimize hard contact and avoid getting barreled will be the key to success on Sunday afternoon. And a quick warning about this game: rain is expected in the area throughout the afternoon, but the forecast indicates light rain for most of the game. Even with a little bit of water, I still feel comfortable taking Tampa Bay by several runs.
You can also check out today’s MLB mega parlay, YRFI/NRFI best bets and baseball player props.
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