I don’t know if I’ve loved a slate more than today’s. Now that pitchers have 3-4 starts under their belt, their true colors are starting to show, and edges are becoming more clear to me. For today, I have 4 MLB best bets to make, and 2 of them are at plus-money odds.
Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith, and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks. After a solid 2-1 day in my last MLB best bets article, I’m back with 4 more plays for today. And now, let’s get into my MLB best bets for Tuesday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Pittsburgh Pirates F5 ML over Los Angeles Dodgers (+110)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The oddsmakers, analysts and most of the baseball world continue to sleep on the Pittsburgh Pirates. It’s clear that the rebuild is over in Pittsburgh, and it’s time to start taking the Pirates seriously as a threat in the NL Central. We will also see a refreshed Pirates team on Tuesday night because they earned the day off on Monday after having games for 17 straight days. On the mound for the rested Pirates will be Johan Oviedo, who has the potential to be one of the most exciting arms in the game. The 25-year-old has a 2.22 ERA paired with a 2.75 xERA after 4 starts against the Red Sox, White Sox, Cardinals and Rockies. He’s exactly the type of pitcher I look to back, considering he ranks above average in strikeout rate, below average in walk rate and rarely gets barreled.
Oviedo is a 4-pitch pitcher, but he relies on his sweeping slider the most. He throws that pitch 40% of the time and has gotten a whiff rate of 37.8% with an xBA of just .174. And interestingly enough, that’s one pitch the Dodgers’ offense has struggled against. Only Max Muncy, J.D Martinez and Freddie Freeman in the Los Angeles lineup have a positive Run-Value against that pitch, but the Dodgers will be without Muncy in Pittsburgh. On the mound for the Dodgers will be Noah Syndergaard, and although he’s been mediocre this year, he’s outmatched against the Pirates’ offense. Pittsburgh tends to score most of their runs in the first half of the game since they rank 3rd in first five innings runs per game and are 12-5-6 on the money line. I’m going back to the well that is the Pirates in the first five innings.
Check out our MLB YRFI/NRFI best bets for today
Tampa Bay Rays F5 -0.5 (-118) over Houston Astros
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
One of the most profitable spots in baseball has been the Rays in the first five innings. Tampa Bay is 17-6 on the run line, but it improves to 12-2 when they’re at home. Also, in the first five innings, they rank 1st in runs per game and limit opponents to the 2nd fewest runs. In every sense of the word, the Rays have been dominant in the first half of the game — especially at home. Their offense isn’t the only thing that performs better at home either: enter Drew Rasmussen.
Since being acquired from the Rays, Rasmussen has been lights out at the Trop. Last season, the right-hander had a 2.24 ERA with a .182 batting average allowed at home compared to a 3.49 ERA and a .262 batting average allowed on the road. It appears that trend has continued because of his 4 starts, his best outing was at home. Rasmussen went 7 innings and allowed just 1 hit with 8 strikeouts in that start.
Attempting to subdue the red-hot Rays offense will be the right-hander, Luis Garcia. After 4 outings, Garcia has a 5.14 ERA with a 4.68 xERA – nothing spectacular. However, Garcia is the type of pitcher that the Rays foam at the mouth for — a right-hander that relies on his fastball. Tampa Bay ranks 1st in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS against right-handed pitching. They have also mashed fastballs this year, especially Randy Arozarena and Brandon Lowe, who have a Run Value of 7 against four-seamers. And lucky for them, Garcia’s fastball is bad. Hitters are whiffing just 10% of the time and have a .417 batting average with a .407 xBA against it. Once again, the Rays have the pitching and hitting advantage which should lead them to a first-half win.
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Chicago Cubs F5 ML (-108) over San Diego Padres
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I’ve gone over a lot of profitable spots in baseball already in this article, but yet another one is the Cubs against southpaws. Chicago is 5-2 against left-hander starters, and they rank 6th in batting average, 7th in on-base percentage and 6th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching after nearly a month of baseball. In their last 2 games against left-handed starters, the Cubs went 2-0 in the first five innings. They didn’t face average southpaws either as they took on Julio Urias and Clayton Kershaw. But tonight, they face a below-average southpaw. Snell is 0-3 with a 6.00 ERA and a 6.86 xERA, and his control has been his Achilles heel. The Padres are 0-4 with an average losing margin of 4 runs when Snell takes the mound, but fading Snell isn’t the only reason I love the Cubs today.
Justin Steele has an absurd amount of potential. The lefty has a 1.44 ERA with a 0.88 WHIP after 4 starts, and the most incredible part of Steele’s game is that he’s a 2-pitch pitcher. Usually, only relievers can rely on just 2 pitches and be successful, but Steele’s fastball and slider combination has opponents hitting .143 with a 28.8% whiff rate. I envision him continuing his success against a Padres lineup that has weirdly struggled against fastballs. Xander Bogaerts, Jake Cronenworth, Manny Machado, Austin Nola and Ha-Seong Kim all have negative Run Values on four-seamers. I might sprinkle some money on the Cubs’ full-game money line too.
Don’t miss our San Diego Padres vs Chicago Cubs predictions
Arizona Diamondbacks F5 -0.5 (+100) over Kansas City Royals
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Brady Singer has dropped off in a big way this season. After just 4 starts, Singer has an 8.14 ERA paired with an 8.60 xERA, and his advanced metrics aren’t pretty. He ranks in the 1st percentile in hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and xSLG, but it doesn’t stop there. Singer also ranks in the bottom 10% of pitchers in xBA, xERA and barrel rate. In his last 16 innings, the right-hander has allowed 18 runs, 24 hits and 5 home runs. Singer is the reason I am targeting the Diamondbacks in the first half of the game because the Royals have lost by 4 and 5 runs after five innings his last 2 starts. Plus, the Diamondbacks bullpen is hanging on by a thread right now, and I’d like to stay away from that.
I can’t explain it, but Ryne Nelson is one of my favorite young pitchers in the game. His electric fastball and over-the-top release have fascinated me, and this is the perfect opportunity to back him. Nelson has been the victim of some bad luck since his ERA sits at a poor 4.91, but his xERA is a full run lower at 3.68. He ranks above average in xBA, xSLG and sweet spot rate, so I think he can bounce back after a difficult start to his season.
Nelson has faced several powerful offenses like the Padres and Dodgers already, so the Kansas City lineup that ranks 30th in batting average, on-base percentage and OPS against right-handers should be a welcomed sight to him. The Diamondbacks are 9-1 on the first five innings run line in their last 10 games at home, while the Royals are 1-9 on the run line in their last 10, so back the trend and the better team in Arizona.
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