Sunday baseball is a thing of beauty because games start early in the day, especially today in Philadelphia, and go all night until we reach Sunday Night Baseball, which is in San Francisco this week. I’ve taken a look at the massive 15-game slate and have 3 best bets to make, including a plus-odds play.
Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith, and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks. And now, let’s get into my MLB best bets for Sunday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Philadelphia Phillies -1.5 (-140) over Colorado Rockies
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Jose Urena is the gift that keeps on giving. Opposing teams are 4-0 on the run line when facing Urena as the Rockies have lost by 2, 3, 4 and 5 runs when he starts. It’s pretty easy to see why since Urena’s advanced metrics make me question why he’s still in the big leagues. In summary, Urena ranks in the bottom 10% of pitchers in xBA, xERA, xSLG, strikeout rate, hard-hit rate, average exit velocity and more. He’s even allowed almost as many home runs as strikeouts, which really demonstrates his struggles. Urena is backed by a slumping Colorado lineup that will be without Kris Bryant this afternoon, so he can’t count on much run support, especially since they will be facing Zack Wheeler.
Wheeler is on the opposite side of the pitching talent scale and ranks in the top 10% in most pitching categories. His 4.79 ERA looks ugly, but his 3.20 xERA and 2.92 FIP show a different story. Wheeler has seen a major improvement from last year in the swing-and-miss department as he’s gone from the 46th to the 79th percentile in whiff rate. More whiffs means fewer balls put in play, and that has led to Wheeler having a perfect 0% barrel rate this season. Urena and Wheeler are not on the same level and the final score should prove that.
Check out our +969 MLB mega parlay for today!
Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-105) over New York Yankees
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
When Clarke Schmidt is on the mound, the Yankees are 0-3-1 in the first 5 innings. He’s dug the Yankees a hole that they usually can’t overcome in the first half of the game, which is why we’re only targeting the starting pitching matchup in this bet. After 4 starts, Schmidt has allowed a .347 batting average in the first 4 innings. Fifth-inning data is not available because he has yet to reach the 5th inning due to a combination of a high pitch count and becoming very hittable. He’s allowed at least 3 runs in all 4 starts, and playing at Yankee Stadium has not provided any support. He is allowing a .355 batting average with a 1.168 OPS in 2 starts in the Bronx, and the most concerning part is that 7 of the 11 hits allowed have gone for extra bases.
In the last two weeks, the Yankees rank 26th in batting average and 24th in on-base percentage. Their offense has been too unpredictable with a few home runs here and there to keep them afloat, but they lack a balanced bottom of the order that strings hits together. New York has an uphill challenge at the plate against Kevin Gausman, who has been quite successful in the Bronx recently. He had a 1.42 ERA with a 0.868 WHIP in 2 starts at Yankee Stadium last season, so the veteran ace isn’t scared by the bright lights. If Gausman can make sure that Aaron Judge doesn’t beat him, he will face a middle of the order that has Anthony Rizzo, Gleyber Torres and DJ LeMahieu, who are a combined 7-for-33 (.212) with 7 strikeouts against him. The starting pitching matchup heavily favors the visitors, so I’ll take their first five innings run line.
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Chicago Cubs F5 ML (+116) over Los Angeles Dodgers
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing.
These National League foes faced off in a 3-game set a little over a week ago in Los Angeles, and the Cubs went 2-0-1 in the first 5 innings. And so far in this current 4-game series in the North Side of Chicago, the Cubs are 1-1-1 in the first half of the game. However, even between those 6 games in the last week or so, this is the first time Marcus Stroman and Clayton Kershaw will face the opposing team. Both starters have had an excellent start to the season, with each pitcher having a sub-3 ERA. Kershaw has posted a 2.52 ERA with a 3.52 xERA after 4 starts and is coming off his best start against the Mets earlier this week. However, it is important to note who Kershaw has faced and how they stack up against lefties. Kershaw’s 4 outings have come against the Diamondbacks twice, Giants and the Mets, and those 3 squads rank 11th, 17th, and 28th in wRC+ against southpaws. How do the Cubs stack up against left-handers you ask? They rank 2nd in batting average, 3rd in OPS and 3rd in wRC+.
News flash: the Dodgers’ offense is overrated. Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman are studs, obviously, but this lineup does not have what it takes to make a deep postseason run. The only hitter that I project hitting above .300 in the Dodgers lineup today is the rookie James Outman, and that says a lot coming from a lineup that has Max Muncy, J.D. Martinez, David Peralta and more. And for the series finale, they have to face Stroman, who holds a 0.75 ERA and the second-highest ground-ball rate in baseball. At 61.4% of balls put in play on the ground against Stroman, only Houston’s ace Framber Valdez has a higher ground-ball rate. But that’s not the extent of Stroman’s game since he also has a career-high strikeout rate and a career-low xBA. With the way Chicago has been swinging the bat against lefties, they’re well worth the bet at plus odds.
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