After an exciting day of baseball yesterday with Max Scherzer getting ejected for a supposed sticky substance, Aaron Judge robbing a home run and then hitting one in the same inning and the Rays pitching yet another shutout, we’re left with a smaller slate of games today. Instead of a straight bet, I decided to match two teams that I believe have a great chance of winning to create a plus-odds parlay.
Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith, and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks. And now, let’s get into my MLB best bet for Thursday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Pirates ML/Phillies ML parlay (+137)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing.
I call this one the Pennsylvania parlay. The Pirates and Phillies will both begin a home series on Thursday night against an inferior opponent, and oddsmakers have factored that into their lines. You can find the Pirates’ money line around -155 at most books as the sharps hammered Pittsburgh’s line overnight, causing it to balloon from -125 to where it is now. I expect the Pirates’ money line to only get steeper as the day goes on, so I’ve decided to pair it with another Pennsylvania favorite to create a better payout. The Phillies are -225 on the money line for the series opener against the Rockies, and it’s safe to say that I’m a big fan of this spot.
All aboard the Pirates bandwagon! I’ve already secured my spot during Pittsburgh’s rout of the Rockies in Colorado. They swept the Rockies in 3 games and outscored them 33-9, as the hitter-friendly conditions and comforts of home were useless for Colorado. And before that, Pittsburgh split a series with the Cardinals in St. Louis and nearly stole the series. Their offense flew under the radar for the first week of the season but is now ranked 4th in batting average, 3rd in on-base percentage and 2nd in OPS in the last 15 days. Pittsburgh’s next victim will be Luke Weaver, who will be making his season debut on Thursday. Weaver made a quick trip to the injured list before the season even started and therefore started his season in Triple-A, completing a few rehab assignments.
Looking at his 2 starts in the Minors, he threw his fastball 49% of the time and his velocity was down from the last few seasons. I think there’s a chance Weaver isn’t 100% yet and his forearm injury could still be nagging him, and if he has to hit the showers early, he leaves a lot of innings left for a very unreliable Cincinnati bullpen. Combine that with the Reds’ offense in an 18-inning scoring drought and being just 1-5 on the road, and you have a strong start to the homestand for the Pirates.
The second leg of this Pennsylvania parlay is Matt Strahm and the Phillies beating Ryan Feltner and the Rockies. As a Red Sox fan, I watched Strahm pitch for us out of the bullpen last year and liked what I saw. However, I never expected him to be a guy that could be converted to a starter. But here we are 3 weeks into the season, and the lefty has a 2.13 ERA with a 0.95 WHIP in 12.2 innings. In his only appearance in his new home, Strahm threw 5 scoreless innings allowing just 4 hits and racking up 6 strikeouts. I like Strahm on the mound tonight, and I like the way the Phillies have been swinging the bat even more. Although the Phillies are still a few games below .500, it hasn’t been for a lack of offense. They rank 3rd in batting average and 5th in OPS this season and should blow the Rockies’ offense out of the water. Colorado’s lineup has been terrible recently with 3 runs or less in 6 straight games. In that span, they rank 26th in batting average and 28th in OPS. The Rockies come into this game on an 8-game losing streak, and I think the Phillies can make it 9.
Don’t forget to check out my +1036 MLB mega parlay for today!
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