Welcome to another week of baseball. Monday’s action starts at 11:10 pm ET in Boston as Marathon Monday has the Red Sox following the tradition of an early morning game, and the day ends in Los Angeles with a 10:10 pm ET first pitch between the Mets and Dodgers. Following my plus-odds winner yesterday, I’m back with 2 plays for today.
Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith, and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks. And now, let’s get into my MLB best bets for Monday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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San Francisco Giants vs Miami Marlins F5 Under 3.5 (+100)
Available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
The Marlins are the most profitable first five innings under team in baseball. The under is 10-5-1 in their 16 games, and it’s due to a combination of excellent pitching and underperforming offenses. It’s no secret that the Fish have a stellar rotation led by Sandy Alcantara, but an unsung hero this season has been Jesus Luzardo. He’s been incredible through 3 starts with a 1.93 ERA and a 2.64 xERA, and impressively, his success has come against star-studded offenses. He’s held the Mets, Twins and Phillies to a combined 4 runs and 15 hits in 18.2 innings. Opponents are hitting .224 with a .299 SLG against Luzardo, but an interesting note is that he has a .193 xBA and a .295 xSLG which means hitters are actually getting lucky against him. The first five innings under is 3-0 in his 3 outings with just 3 total runs being scored.
Besides being an excellent pitcher, a big reason I think Luzardo will have success against the Giants’ lineup is that he’s a lefty. San Francisco ranks 27th in batting average, 28th in on-base percentage and 30th in OPS against left-handed pitching this season and only the Detroit Tigers have a worse wRC+ versus southpaws. The Giants have faced 4 left-handed starters this season (Kris Bubic, Julio Urias, Clayton Kershaw and Joey Wentz), and they have scored 4 runs on 17 hits with 28 strikeouts in 23.2 innings.
I like Luzardo’s chances of minimizing San Francisco’s lineup, and the same can be said for Logan Webb against Miami. In the first five innings, the Marlins rank 30th in runs per game and have a .219 batting average with a .610 OPS. They take on a ground-ball pitcher that has had consistent success against this Miami lineup. The Marlins’ offense has a .222 batting average and a .199 xBA with a 36.8% strikeout rate against Webb in their careers. The catch of the day is in Miami, and it’s the first five innings under at plus-money odds.
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