Another week of baseball wraps up today, but not before a 15-game slate that starts at 1:10 PM in Detroit and finishes with Sunday Night Baseball in Houston.
Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith, and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks. And now, let’s get into my MLB best bets for Sunday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Pittsburgh Pirates F5 +0.5 (+100) over St. Louis Cardinals
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
This line opened with the Cardinals as heavy favorites and has slowly moved toward the Pirates. It’s not hard to see why, because all you have to do is look at the pitching matchup. Miles Mikolas is starting to wear out his welcome in St. Louis as the right-hander has a 10.05 ERA with an 8.82 xERA after 3 starts. It’s not like one start has skewed his date and he’s expected to start regressing to the mean because his advanced metrics indicate that his poor outings are no fluke. Mikolas has faced the Blue Jays, Braves and Rockies, and those lineups have combined to hit .420 with a .440 on-base percentage and a 1.107 OPS. Obviously those numbers are laughably high and will come down, but perhaps not by much. He has a .364 xBA and a .644 xSLG which point to Mikolas not seeing major improvement anytime soon.
Would it surprise you to hear that the Pirates rank higher than the Cardinals in slugging percentage and OPS against right-handed pitching? Or that Pittsburgh averages more first five runs per game and has a better first innings run line record? This isn’t your grandpa’s Pirates team anymore. Pittsburgh is one victory away from 10 wins and has put together a youthful yet balanced lineup that has surprised teams this season. Another surprise this year has been Mitch Keller, who has had an up-and-down career but has shown flashes of brilliance at times. He takes the mound for his 4th start of the season, and so far he has a 3.57 ERA with a career-high 29.3% strikeout rate. Keller has also lowered his xBA from .253 last season to .220 this year, and it’s all because of one reason: a cutter.
The pitch was added to Keller’s arsenal in the offseason and has become his most-thrown pitch this season at 23.9% of the time. His cutter has led to Keller ranking in the 95th percentile in hard-hit rate and average exit velocity. The Pirates are 10-5 on the run line in the first 5 innings, so to get Pittsburgh to be winning or tied after 5 innings at plus odds is a bet I’m willing to take.
Check out our YRFI/NRFI best bets for Sunday
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