We’re nearly two weeks into the MLB season and teams are starting to take shape. Monday is an action-packed slate of 14 MLB games, and I’m looking to build off my 2-1 day on Friday. Before we get into the games, let me introduce myself. For those that don’t know me, my name is Keith, and I finished up +62.6 units in the regular season last year with my Pickswise picks. And now, let’s get into my MLB best bets for Monday, and be sure to also visit our MLB predictions for all of today’s games.
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Tampa Bay Rays team total over 4.5 (-110)
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
It has been a historic and incredibly shocking start to the season for the Rays. Tampa Bay is a perfect 9-0 and looking to be the first team to 10 wins, but unfortunately, they have Jalen Beeks and Josh Fleming on the mound tonight. That’s why I’ve turned to the game props for this best bet to back a trend that is 8-0 in the last 8 games. On Opening Day, the Rays defeated the Tigers 4-0. That has been the only game in which Tampa Bay has not scored at least 5 runs, as they average 8.88 runs per game since their Opening Day win. Their offense ranks 2nd in batting average and 1st in on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS through 9 games.
I know it can be easy to look at their schedule and think it was an easy path to 9-0, but the Rays haven’t just been winning – they’ve been dominating. They beat up on the Detroit, Washington and Oakland pitching staffs, and while the Boston rotation might sound more difficult, it’s not. The Red Sox starting rotation has the 3rd worst ERA in baseball, and the only teams they’re in front of? The Tigers and Athletics. Boston will feed Nick Pivetta to the wolves on Monday night, and it won’t be pretty. Pivetta managed to allow only 3 runs to the Pirates in his season debut, but the Canadian had a 76.9% hard-hit rate and a whopping 38.5% barrel rate. That’s 5 barrels in 1 outing which is truly absurd considering he was barreled 47 times in 33 starts last year. And for the icing on the cake, Pivetta was 0-3 with a 6.86 ERA and a .286 opponent batting average in 4 starts against Tampa Bay last year. Once Pivetta’s day is done, Tampa Bay’s opportunities to score will continue. Boston’s bullpen has been decent to start the season, but Josh Schreiber, Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen have all appeared a lot recently and need a day off. Tampa Bay should have no problem reaching 5 runs.
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Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-140) over San Francisco Giants
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
It’s been a sluggish start to the season for the Dodgers. They are 5-5 following 3 straight losses to a young and surging Diamondbacks squad and travel to San Francisco for their first rivalry series of the season. Both teams put their cards on the table, and it’s a pair of aces. Julio Urias will start for the Dodgers and Logan Webb will counter for the Giants, and while this was a perfect NRFI spot for me last season, I think there’s a smarter bet in this game. Urias has dominated the Giants in his career and has allowed 1 earned run in his last 18 innings against San Francisco. This will be his 10th career start at Oracle Park, and through 13 appearances and 9 starts, Urias has a 2.45 ERA and a .236 opponent batting average. History favors Urias, but the biggest advantage he has is being a lefty. The Giants rank 30th in batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and OPS against left-handed pitchers this season. Along with hitting just .153 against southpaws, San Francisco has a 44% strikeout rate.
Webb has made a name for himself as the new Giants ace, but his kryptonite appears to be his divisional rival. In 10 career starts against the Dodgers, Webb is 2-4 with a 4.44 ERA and a .259 opponent batting average. The top of the Los Angeles lineup is Murderers’ Row to Webb since Mookie Betts is hitting .435, Freddie Freeman is hitting .500 and Max Muncy is hitting .300 in their careers against him. The Dodgers rank 3rd in OPS against right-handed pitching this season, and Webb should be their next victim. I had the Dodgers projected as -160 favorites, so there’s value on their money line at -140.
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