Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
Show Bio
The game of the weekend is without a doubt the Kansas City Chiefs (+2.5) traveling to Buffalo to take on the Bills. This game is a showdown of 2 titans at quarterback in Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen. Both teams have question marks heading into this game. The Bills have a lengthy injury report: Stefon Diggs (foot), Gabe Davis (knee), Terrel Bernard (knee), Christian Benford (knee) and Taylor Rapp (calf). Some of these guys will play in the Divisional Round and some may not suit up at all.
On the Kansas City side, it’s less about their injuries and more about question marks surrounding the talent level of the team. Defensively, they’re light years ahead of where they were during their last 2 Super Bowl runs, but offensively there are problems at the playmaker positions: which WR will step up outside of rookie Rashee Rice? Does Travis Kelce have one foot out the door and follow his brother into retirement? You can read our NFL picks for every Divisional Round game this weekend, but for now, let’s look at my favorite player prop bets for Chiefs vs Bills.
Patrick Mahomes (KC) over 4.5 rush attempts (+102)
Odds available at Caesars Sportsbook at time of publishing.
Mahomes has hit this in 7 of 15 career playoff games (in all 3 Super Bowl appearances and 1 against Buffalo in 2021). The Bills’ defense has been destroyed with injuries to their linebackers and secondary. Mahommes hit this in 8/17 games in the regular season and this line is -125 on the other retail books such as FanDuel and DraftKings. Another fun aspect to this is that kneel-downs count as rush attempts. Whether that means victory formation or going into halftime, those plays get us rush attempts logged.
The Bills have allowed this mark to quarterbacks in 8 of 17 regular season games. I expect the Bills to do a good job of keeping Pacheco under wraps and also, the Chiefs’ pass defense on the road is horrible. Why do I bring that up? Playing from behind = more rush attempt opportunities. Mahomes in a do-or-die situation tells me he’s going to be more willing to take off. Buffalo defensive tackle Ed Oliver had 3 QB hits last week against the Steelers and is one of the few Bills defensive players not on the injury report. Getting pressure from Oliver up the middle forces Mahomes outside the pocket to make plays with his legs.
Do NOT play this at the -125 if that all your book has — you can pivot to over 27.5 rushing yards at FanDuel, but at plus-money odds, this is the way to go.
Read our full Kansas City Chiefs vs Buffalo Bills predictions
$5 Worth of Fun: Chiefs vs Bills Same Game Parlay (+3190)
- Patrick Mahomes Anytime Touchdown Scorer (+600)
- Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-115)
- Under 45.5 points (-110)
$5 pays $159.55
