And then there were 4. The final 4 teams in Omaha are Florida, Wake Forest, TCU and LSU, and only 1 can be named the best college baseball team in the country. On Wednesday, Florida and TCU begin the day with a 2:00 pm ET first pitch and then the night game will feature an LSU and Wake Forest rematch.
Let’s dive into my College Baseball World Series best bet for today’s action.
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Wake Forest vs LSU Under 10.5 (-110)
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
This total opened at 11.5, dropped to 11 and now sits at 10.5, so sharps are attacking the under and sinking the total. It makes sense, too, because a lot of these games in Omaha have had much less scoring than expected. One part of that is the pitcher-friendly nature of Charles Schwab Field, but another part is that good pitching beats good hitting every single day. That was evident in Monday’s game between these two schools as only 5 runs were scored in the entire game. I think we’re going to see a few more scores in tonight’s game since the offenses have become a little more comfortable in Omaha, but expecting double-digits seems like a lot to ask. For the Demon Deacons, they have totaled just 15 hits in 2 games – far below their season average. Coming into the College World Series, Wake Forest was averaging nearly 10 runs per game, so the offense has been stalling in Omaha. But that hasn’t affected their performance since they’ve won both games, and both contests had just 5 runs scored.
The Demon Deacons used their primary 2 arms, Rhett Lowder and Josh Hartle, in the first 2 games — so that means today will be a combination of Sean Sullivan and Seth Keener. While it may seem like a disadvantage to not have their ace or even their #2 starter available, the Deacons should be just fine. Sullivan is 5-1 with a 2.42 ERA in 16 games and limited hitters to just a .175 batting average this season. He was the first man out of the pen in their first game, and he threw 1.1 scoreless innings against Stanford. Kenner followed Sullivan in that game, and the right-hander faced 4 hitters and struck each one out. That’s not surprising since Keener had a 1.75 ERA with a .162 batting average against in 22 games this season. In short, the tandem of Sullivan and Keener is exceptional.
The Tigers are at a disadvantage before they even step on the field — not because of Sullivan or Keener, but because this is their 3rd game in 3 days. Paul Skenes, Ty Floyd, Thatcher Hurd, Riley Cooper and Nate Ackenhausen are all unavailable today. That means it will likely be a bullpen game for LSU, and it could start with either Gavin Guidry or Blake Money (I know, what a cool name). Regardless, there will be a short leash on these Tigers, and once they get into some trouble, it will be onto the next guy. If this was happening during regionals or super regionals, I would be severely worried for LSU. However, Wake Forest has not done enough on offense to scare me away from taking the under. This should be a close, gritty game that ends with fewer than 11 runs.
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