A walk-off sac-fly, a 4-run rally in the top of the 9th for a win and a dominant outing from Paul Skenes – and it’s only Day 3! The first 2 days in Omaha have been packed with excitement and passion, and today should be no different. That’s especially true because today the first team will be eliminated. And through the first 2 days, I’m 2-0 as yesterday’s LSU -1.5 pick cashed with ease – thanks to the powerful Tigers offense, and of course, Skenes.
On Sunday, TCU and Virginia begin the day with a 2:00 pm ET first pitch in an elimination game and then the night game will feature Oral Roberts and Florida, which is the game I am targeting for my best bet.
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Florida -2.5 (-130) over Oral Roberts
Available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
In Omaha, hitting is key, but pitching is crucial. All 8 teams have superb lineups that rank at the top of the country in most offensive categories, so there isn’t a team that has a huge advantage at the plate. That’s where pitching comes in because while each team may have 2-3 starters and a packed bullpen, the talent level is very different. And between these two teams on Friday, the pitching wasn’t great, but the offense saved them. Florida and Oral Roberts had similar endings to their first game in the College World Series which entailed both squads rallying in the 9th inning to avoid an early loss. While it was a great story for both teams, it was concerning to see both lineups struggle for the majority of the game and the reliable arms in both bullpens look nervous. Tonight, I’m most concerned about Oral Roberts.
The Golden Eagles used Jakob Hall in game one, and it was up for debate who would be their game two starter. It looks like they’ve settled on Harley Gollert, a redshirt Senior who started 16 games this season. However, Gollert is far from a reliable option at this point in the season. He was rocked in the regionals and super regionals, which were his two biggest tests of the season. Washington and Oregon combined for 12 runs and 12 hits, including 4 home runs, in just 5.1 innings against the lefty. His 10-1 record on the season looks impressive, but a .252 opponent batting average and 31 walks in 88 innings tell me a different story. On the other side, the caliber of Florida’s pitching will not drop a bit as they go from Brandon Sproat to Hurston Waldrep.
Waldrep has made 17 starts this season and has accumulated a 4.15 ERA which is slightly misleading. Walks have been an issue for the right-hander, which have come back to burn him, but he’s also recorded 142 strikeouts in just 93.1 innings. Opponents have just a .218 batting average against him this season, and when looking at his game log, it’s not hard to see that Waldrep has only gotten better as the year’s gone on. His last few outings have come against South Carolina, Connecticut, Alabama, Kentucky and Vanderbilt, so it’s safe to say he’s been tested a few times in recent weeks. But Waldrep not only rose to the challenge, but he crushed it. In his last two starts against South Carolina and Connecticut, the right-hander allowed 1 run and 8 hits while striking out 25 hitters in 15 innings. Waldrep is on the rise while Gollert seems to be crumbling under pressure, so combine that with Florida’s prolific offense, and you have a big win for the Gators.
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