What a start in Omaha! On Friday, Oral Roberts overcame a 3-run deficit in the 9th inning and rallied to win 6-5 and hand TCU its first loss of the tournament. That cashed my Oral Roberts +1.5 pick with only a minor sweat, so I’m looking to stay perfect in Saturday’s slate of games.
On Saturday, Stanford and Wake Forest begin the day with a 2:00 pm ET first pitch and then the night game will feature Tennessee and LSU, which is the game I am targeting for my best bet.
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LSU -1.5 (-114) over Tennessee
Available at FanDuel Sportsbook at time of publishing
It’s an SEC showdown in Omaha, Nebraska, as the Tigers take on the Volunteers in the second of the two games on Saturday. On the mound for LSU is Paul Skenes, the projected 2nd overall pick in this year’s MLB Draft. The 1st overall pick is expected to be his teammate Dylan Crews, but I’ll get into that later. Skenes might be the most MLB-ready pitcher in college baseball. The 6’6″ transfer from Air Force has had a Joe Burrow-esque season for the Tigers as he’s dominated every team he’s faced this season. In 17 starts, Skenes has a 1.77 ERA, a 0.776 WHIP and a .170 opponent batting average in 107 innings. That sounds like pure domination, but it gets better. He allowed just 65 hits in that span while racking up an absurd 188 strikeouts. That’s 15.8 strikeouts per 9 innings, and it’s thanks to his devastating 3-pitch arsenal. Skenes’ fastball sits 98 mph (yes, he sits at 98) and even touched 102 this season, but he also has a wipeout slider that he uses against righties and then a disappearing changeup he uses against lefties. In his one start against Tennessee this season, Skenes’ arsenal was on full display, and he threw 7 innings and allowed 1 run and 5 hits with 12 punchouts. LSU won that game 5-2.
For their first game in Omaha, the Volunteers will turn to Andrew Lindsey, a lockdown reliever turned #2 starter. Lindsey started the season in the bullpen and made 12 appearances in relief before being moved to the starting rotation for 8 starts, so in the 20 games combined, Lindsey had a 2.79 ERA and a 1.079 WHIP. Opponents had a .219 batting average against the right-hander, and he’s coming off a mediocre outing against Southern Miss in the super regionals. He got knocked around for 4 runs on 6 hits, including 2 homers, in just 4 innings and that worries me. Lindsey has the tough task of limiting Crews, whose hitting .434 this season, Tommy Tanks, who has a 1.197 OPS (remember him from NC State?) and Hayden Travinski who has a .798 slugging percentage. It’s one of the most dangerous top-of-the-orders in the country, and I’m not sure Lindsey can keep the Tigers contained. LSU won 14 of Skenes’ 17 starts this season, and every win came by at least 2 runs. I’m backing the Tigers by the run line to start their journey in Omaha with a bang.
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