Aaron Ashley
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We move on to day 3 of the Euro 2024 Last 16 stage on Monday, July 1, with 2 huge knockout games featuring some of the best soccer nations in the world. First up, we have a star-studded clash as France battle Belgium at 12:00 pm ET on FS1. That is followed by Cristiano Ronaldo and Portugal taking on Slovenia at 3:00 pm ET over on FOX. We have expert soccer predictions for EVERY Euro 2024 and Copa America game throughout both tournaments, but for now, let’s dive into our Euro 2024 best bets for Monday.
France vs Belgium best bet: Under 2.5 goals (-170)
It is fair to say that both France and Belgium have underwhelmed at Euro 2024 ahead of their Last 16 game on Monday. France’s best display came in their opener against Austria as they had to dig deep to secure a 1-0 win, which came courtesy of a first-half own goal. Belgium opened the campaign with a surprise 1-0 defeat to Slovakia but 4 points from games against Romania and Ukraine proved to be enough to send them into the next round.
A French player is yet to score in open play during the tournament as Kylian Mbappe has 1 goal from the penalty spot, with the own goal against Austria their only other effort. The star-studded Les Bleus attack may have struggled to deliver in Germany but their defense has looked solid. France have only conceded 1 goal across their 3 games so far, while Belgium’s defense has also only been breached once. Based on the 6 games involving these teams so far, the France vs Belgium best bet appears to be on under 2.5 goals.
Read our full France vs Belgium predictions
Portugal vs Slovenia best bet: Portugal Win in Shutout (-120)
Portugal haven’t been fortunate with how the bracket has panned out. They were seen as contenders thanks to being on the opposite side of the draw to France and England, but their half of the bracket now contains the French, plus Germany, Spain and Belgium. There are significant tests ahead for Portugal and head coach Roberto Martinez needs to settle on his best starting 11 quickly. He’s been tinkering a little too much with the side in the buildup to the tournament, including packing in 3 warm-up friendlies to test out 3 different systems.
However, Portugal progressed through the group stage with a solid defensive record. They conceded to the Czech Republic in their opener but their underlying numbers looked good, racking up an Expected Goals tally of 1.9 to their opponent’s 0.4. Holding a solid Turkey side to 0.7 xG in their second game was a real signal of how solid Portugal are. While their second-string struggled against Georgia, their starting back-four returns to meet a Slovenia side that has some issues going forward.
Slovenia made it out of the group stage unbeaten, tying all three of their games. That’s how Portugal progressed in 2016 before winning the competition, but this looks like a bridge too far for Slovenia. Their tally of two goals was par for the course in Group C, but it’s hard to see them creating a lot against this Portugal team. The Portuguese conceded just 6 shots on target in the group stage and goalkeeper Diogo Costa has been impressive.
Read our full Portugal vs Slovenia predictions
