Phil Agius
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One of the most attractive games in the English Premier League season takes place on Saturday morning (7:30am, NBCSN) as Champions League winner Chelsea hosts EPL champion Manchester City.
Not only do they have the trophies, the teams also boast two of the highest-quality rosters anywhere in the world, with world-class players filling both benches.
Chelsea heads into the weekend on top of the EPL standings after 4 wins and a tie in their first 5 league games, but City has not made such a strong start, taking only 10 points so far to lie 5th.
To add to the drama of this matchup, we’ve come up with a same game parlay that pays over 11/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Chelsea to win by exactly 2 goals (+750)
Romelu Lukaku anytime scorer (+150)
Parlay odds: +1147
Let’s go through each of the legs in more detail, but make sure you also check out the rest of our soccer predictions for all the EPL and MLS games this weekend.
Chelsea to win by exactly two goals (+750)
There are just two legs in this EPL same game parlay, but it still pays at very nice odds. Backing any team to beat City by two goals would have been unthinkable for much of the last few seasons, but they have not looked quite as convincing as usual this season — in their toughest tests at least.
Pep Guardiola’s men have shown a ruthless streak when taking apart the weaker teams they meet, beating Norwich and slow-starting Arsenal 5-0 in the league, and RB Leipzig 6-3 in the Champions League, but Leipzig is struggling in the Bundesliga this year. Even in midweek, City smashed lower-tier team Wycombe 6-1 in the EFL Cup.
But they have not got the same results against stronger teams, losing 1-0 to Tottenham, winning 1-0 at Leicester, and being held to a 0-0 tie at home to Southampton in their last league game.
Chelsea are the strongest opponents they have met this season and, let’s not forget, the London club beat City three times in the last two months of last season — in the FA Cup, EPL, and most famously in the Champions League final. Each of those wins was by one goal, but with Thomas Tuchel now much further down the line of shaping the Blues into the team he wants a clear win is possible on Saturday.
All four of Chelsea’s league wins have been by two or more goals, and their only tie was at Liverpool, when they had Reece James sent off in the first half but still looked the better team.
Be sure to check out our full game preview for Chelsea vs Manchester City
Romelu Lukaku anytime scorer (+150)
Romelu Lukaku has done little wrong since providing the massive boost to Chelsea’s strikeforce with his summer signing. The Belgian has scored 7 goals in 8 games for his club and country this season and benefits from excellent service provided by his teammates.
It might be a different story if City was able to field its first-choice defense, but with John Stones and Aymeric Laporte likely to remain sidelined for at least this game, despite returning to training this week, Chelsea have an ideal opportunity to score an important win.
In Chelsea’s last two major home games (against Aston Villa in the league and Zenit in the Champions League), Lukaku scored the first goal of the game, while he came on for only the final 14 minutes in Wednesday’s EFL Cup game with Villa at Stamford Bridge.
For the purposes of this parlay, we don’t need him to score first this time, as long as he’s on the scoresheet in a Chelsea win by two goals — 2-0 and 3-1 are by far the most likely scorelines we are targeting, but if it gets to 4-2 or 5-3 he’s even more likely to have got one of them!
Don’t forget to check out our 4-game EPL Saturday parlay (+1321 odds!)
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