Joe Casey
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Last season’s English Premier League title race was a thriller that went down to the final day, with Manchester City winning their 4th championship in 5 years in dramatic fashion through a 3-2 comeback win against Aston Villa.
Liverpool finished a close 2nd and is expected to throw down another strong challenge this season, with oddsmakers again expecting something close to a 2-team race, with Tottenham and Chelsea next in the betting.
Let’s take a look at the latest odds for the 2022-23 EPL title.
2022/23 EPL Premier League winner odds
2022-23 EPL Premier League winner best bet: Manchester City (-165)
It’s hard to see past Manchester City in their bid to retain the English title. Midfielder Kalvin Phillips and striker Erling Haaland are excellent additions to last season’s title-winning team and there are doubts over their main rivals.
Liverpool, who pushed City all the way last season, have added Darwin Nunez to their forward line, but they have lost Sadio Mane to Bayern Munich and potentially a bit of continuity in attack. The Reds also look a little short in midfield and although Chelsea, Tottenham and Arsenal have all strengthened in the summer, Pep Guardiola’s side can retain the title.
2022-23 EPL Premier League without the Big 6 best bet: Leicester City (+500)
As you can see from the championship odds, there are really 2 tiers of teams in the EPL — Manchester City, Liverpool, Chelsea, Tottenham, Arsenal and Manchester United — who are collectively known as ‘the Big 6’ — and the other 14 teams who are generally battling to be best of the rest.
DraftKings Sportsbook will enable you to bet on who finishes highest of those 14 teams, taking the top teams out of the equation, with their market called Winner Without The Big 6 — you can find it in the Winner Without section of their EPL Team Futures.
Leicester City looks to be a decent bet in that market. The Foxes are famous for their huge upset victory when they won the EPL title as 5,000/1 longshots in 2015-16. They suffered with injuries to key players last season, particularly Wesley Fofana, and with the Frenchman returning to bolster their backline they could finish best of the rest this time.
Before last season, Brendan Rodgers’ team had claimed back-to-back 5th-place finishes and won the FA Cup, so they have experience of big games and strong finishes in the European qualification places – more so than Newcastle, who are the +250 favourites in the Without the Big 6 market, with West Ham at +300, Leicester at +500 and Aston Villa at +550.
While Newcastle have spent big, they are still a team in transition and offer little value at those odds given the quality of the Leicester and West Ham rosters.
The potential departure of Youri Tielemans is a worry for Leicester but the young talents of Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall, James Justin and Harvey Barnes can help them bounce back from last season’s poor performance to top the table without the Big 6.
2022-23 EPL Premier League relegation best bet: Fulham (+110)
At the other end of the league, promoted Fulham’s return to the Premier League may last only a single season. The Whites put together a record-breaking scoring campaign in last term’s Championship with striker Aleksandar Mitrovic netting 43 of their 106 league goals. However, the 2021-22 Championship was a weak division and despite their scoring spree Fulham’s tally of 90 points was the lowest for a team winning England’s second-tier title since 2014-15.
Head coach Marco Silva has lost Fabio Carvalho, who contributed 11 goals, the most of any player other than Mitrovic, as well as 7 assists, and the youngster’s creativity and goal threat will be missed after his departure to Liverpool.
The historical precedent for Fulham as a promoted club won’t fill their fans with much hope either. In 3 of the last 4 seasons, at least 2 of the promoted teams have been relegated straight back to the Championship, demonstrating the gulf in class between the divisions, and Fulham could become the latest team to suffer that fate. Three teams will be relegated and at plus-odds to fill one of those places, the London club look a solid bet.
The 3 promoted clubs fill the first 3 places in the relegation betting with Bournemouth -200 to be relegated, Fulham at +110 and Nottingham Forest at +120. The lowest odds of the EPL’s returning clubs are for Leeds (+225), Brentford (+250), Everton (+300) and Southampton (+300).
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