Sam Avellone
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The Elite Eight continues on Sunday with two more exciting matchups that will look a bit different than Saturday’s games. Unlike Saturday, we will see a #1 seed in action as well as two double digit seeds. In the first game, #1 Kansas returns to the Elite Eight for the first time since 2018 and will play #10 Miami, who has not been to the Elite Eight during coach Jim Larranaga’s tenure with the program. In the second game, #8 North Carolina returns to the Elite Eight for the first time since its title run in 2017 and will play #15 St. Peter’s, who is the first #15 seed to advance to the Elite Eight in NCAA Tournament history.
Sunday’s games should be very entertaining while also providing us with a couple of betting opportunities. Here are two of my favorite bets for the second half of the Elite Eight.
Miami vs Kansas over 147 points
This matchup could result in an explosion of points from Miami and Kansas, as these are two of the best offenses in college basketball. The Hurricanes have been impressive in their run to the Elite Eight, as they have defeated 3 teams that all rank in the top 50 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency. Miami’s success offensively is not a surprise considering the Hurricanes rank 18th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and score 74.6 ppg against opponents surrendering 68.3 ppg. On the other side, Kansas has been an offensive juggernaut all season long. The Jayhawks rank 6th in offensive efficiency per KenPom and score an average of 78.4 ppg against opponents surrendering 65.8 ppg.
Kansas is a top 25 defense per KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency, but the Jayhawks leave a bit to be desired when defending in transition. Per Synergy, Kansas ranks in the 66th percentile, allowing opponents to score 0.963 points per possession in transition. Miami will likely be able to exploit this weakness in the Kansas defense, as the Hurricanes lead the country with 1.216 points per possession in transition. The Jayhawks are very good in transition as well, as they rank in the 87th percentile and score 1.108 points per possession in their transition offense. Miami may be able to limit some of Kansas’ transition opportunities with its 6th ranked turnover rate, but the Jayhawks own a decent advantage in the rebounding department and will likely use that to kick start their fast break opportunities.
In the half court, Miami will attempt to stretch the floor with Sam Waardenburg’s perimeter shooting. The 6’10” center leads the team in 3-point% and will likely draw Kansas’ big man, David McCormack, out of the paint. This will open cutting lanes for the Hurricanes, who score 1.297 points per possession on their cuts to the basket. If Waardenburg is enough of a matchup problem for Kansas, coach Bill Self could be forced to play a smaller lineup by putting Jalen Wilson on Waardenburg. The issue with this is Kansas is not quite as good defensively without McCormack on the floor. Per Hooplens, the Jayhawks allow 0.96 points per possession when McCormack is not on the floor compared to 0.90 points per possession when he is on it.
North Carolina -8.5 over St. Peter’s
The St. Peter’s Peacocks are on a historic run thanks to their physicality and impressive defense. After upsetting #2 Kentucky and #7 Murray State, the Peacocks knocked off #3 Purdue, holding the Boilermakers to 64 total points and 0.88 points per possession. The Peacocks have now covered in 10 straight games since their 14-point loss at Siena on February 20th, but they will have a tough test against the Tar Heels on Sunday. The Tar Heels are on a strong run similar to the Peacocks, having covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 games.
North Carolina was impressive in its victory over UCLA on Friday. The Bruins jumped out to an 8-point lead in the first 12 minutes, but the Tar Heels battled back and outscored UCLA 22-12 in the final 10 minutes to secure the win. Caleb Love scored a season-high 30 points for UNC, while dishing out 4 assists and committing just 1 turnover. Armando Bacot controlled the paint, adding 14 points and 15 rebounds, while Brady Manek scored 13 points and grabbed 8 rebounds in support. The Peacocks’ run has been quite impressive, but it will likely come to an end against the Tar Heels on Sunday. While St. Peter’s is a top 25 defense and is difficult to prepare for on short rest, North Carolina is an elite offense that plays fast and scores efficiently. The Tar Heels rank 19th in KenPom’s adjusted offensive efficiency and score 78.3 ppg against opponents who surrender an average of 68.2 ppg. It may be difficult for St. Peter’s to match North Carolina’s offensive firepower, as the Peacocks rank 216th in KenPom’s offensive efficiency and average just 67.5 ppg.
North Carolina struggled against good defensive opponents early in the season, but the Tar Heels are 6-1 SU with an average margin victory of 14.5 points against top 100 defenses since the middle of February. North Carolina takes better care of the ball offensively and is more reliable defensively than Purdue, thus matching up with St. Peter’s better than the Boilermakers. I like North Carolina here despite the resounding support for the Cinderella Peacocks.
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