Prop Holliday - Bobby Stanley
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The Miami Dolphins (-3.5) are road favorites against the Los Angeles Chargers this Sunday night. It seems to be a repeated theme that the Chargers have underperformed against expectations, but still remain in the wildcard hunt although their chances are fading. A loss Sunday night would make grabbing that 7th seed extremely difficult. The Dolphins are coming off their first loss since Week 6, and a road win Sunday would continue to add pressure to the AFC East, as all 3 teams meet in the next 4 weeks.
Jaylen Waddle longest reception over 23.5 yards (-120)
Line available at DraftKings Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
The Los Angeles Chargers play man defense roughly 50% of the time, good for top 3 in the NFL. They may want to rethink things Sunday night as the Dolphins wide receivers are not the ideal matchup for that philosophy. Waddle missed this line last week, but not for a lack of trying, as several 20-yard attempts were simply off the mark. However, Waddle has hit this a ridiculous 6 weeks straight prior to that; 9 total on the season. 1U
Austin Ekeler under 45.5 rushing yards (-113)
Line available at Fanduel Sportsbook at the time of publishing.
Ekeler has only hit this line in 4/12 games this season, and with it shaping up to be a shootout, I can’t see him being leaned on heavily in the run game. He’s only been over 14 carries once in the last 7 games, and the Chargers are passing the ball on 66% of plays, 2nd most in the NFL. Sony Michel and Joshua Kelly recently combined for 11 carries last week, add in Isaiah Spiller and you have 3 backs that can manage short yardage while Ekeler lines up in the slot. When comparing him to other starting RBs, Ekeler ranks dead last in snaps lined up on the field on run plays according to PFF (157 total), and his attempts (138) are the second fewest to only Devin Singletary.
He’s struggling to pick up yards after contact and only has 12 rushes of 10+ yards or more this season. Not a great spot in what should be an aerial assault Sunday night. Over the last few weeks, Miami has bottled up Christian McCaffrey, Dameon Pierce and David Montgomery, so it would be tough to see Ekeler break that streak. 0.5U
Anytime Touchdown Scorers
Jaylen Waddle +135
Mike Williams +195
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