Diane Knox Balas
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Maybe I’ll just give you Top-5 prop bets from now on, because for the third week in a row one of them paid out! I hope you took Max Homa at +800 for a Top-5 finish, because he had a final round -3 to finish in a tie for 5th – even though that double bogey on the last hole made me extremely nervous!
This week, we’re crossing the border and heading North to Canada, and at long last. The RBC Canadian Open is back after a rather long break from the Tour schedule due to the pandemic. And it’s back to one of the country’s greatest golf courses for the first time since 2010, but more on St George’s Golf and Country Club in a few moments.
There’s been a lot of buzz surrounding this week for a variety of reasons. Of course, everyone is happy Canada’s national open makes its return, but it’s also the week of the first LIV Golf event across the pond in London. Maybe the most controversial storyline was the inclusion of Dustin Johnson to the LIV line-up, who was sponsored by RBC for a number of years and won this tournament in 2018. As a result, RBC have dropped DJ and said they’re “extremely disappointed in his decision”. Yikes.
However, that won’t overshadow the action in Canada this week as a top field tees it up, including Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, defending champion Rory McIlroy, Sam Burns and local favorite Corey Conners.
With a strong contingent of Canadians you may be inclined to pick one of them this week, but it’s worth noting no Canadian has won their national open since 1958.
St. George’s Golf and Country Club: What you need to know
As I said in my intro, this course hasn’t hosted the RBC Canadian Open for 12 years, but it’s going to be worth the wait. The course first opened in 1929, but over recent years has undergone some changes and renovations.
The greens, which are now bent-grass, were rebuilt in 2014/15 but were modeled on the original designs. Some slope was taken out of the greens, but they do run quicker than they did in 2010. All the bunkers were redone to help with drainage and withstanding the weather that Toronto gets hit with in the winter.
The course is short – much shorter than the other courses in rotation for this tournament. At right around 7,000 yards, distance is not going to be a key factor to success. It’s another approach course, with a premium in hitting greens and avoiding the heavy rough and many bunkers surrounding them.
Fairways are pretty generous, but the rough is thicker than you’d see at a normal PGA Tour event, which can only serve as good preparation for next week’s U.S. Open at Brookline.
Here’s something unique about this tournament – the practice facilities are on another property! Warm-ups will be completed at nearby Islington Golf Club, and then players will be shuttled down the road to begin their rounds, teeing off on Holes 1 & 9 over the first two days, as opposed to the traditional starting hole of No.10.
We don’t have much historical data to go on around here, but the scoring will probably be low and I’m really going to look at “target golfers” with great scrambling stats. Having said that, a few guys did play the tournament here in 2010, notably Pat Perez, Luke Donald, Brian Stuard, Brandt Snedeker and Nick Taylor.
Knox’s Knockout RBC Canadian Open picks
Rory McIlroy (+1000)
Odds available at BetMGM Sportsbook at time of publishing
Rory’s scoring average on the shorter courses on the Tour is better than anyone else’s’, even though he’s one of the longest hitters we see. He’s a strong favorite this week but, as defending champion of the Canadian Open, it’s easy to see why. In 2019, he shot a 61 (albeit on a different course) to win, and we all know what Rory is capable of. I’m grabbing him at 10/1 while I have the chance!
Corey Conners (+2200)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
Did I say that Canadians don’t have a great track-record here? Oh well, I’m taking a chance on Corey Conners (again, lol). He’s coming off a T13 finish at Memorial last week that saw him gain over 8 STROKES on the field in approach. He was also solid tee-to-green, which is the real strength of his game. With Conners, it’s a case of the putter not performing, but I’m relying on the crowd to really get his juices flowing this week, and potentially see a new gear on the greens.
Brendon Todd (+10000)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
You want a straight hitter who can putt, AND has shown good form lately? Brendon Todd is your guy! Todd finished third at the Charles Schwab Challenge a few weeks ago, and nabbed another top-10 at the Valero Texas Open back in April. He also plays well on these shorter courses, such as Mayakoba, where he won in 2019. He’s 5th in driving accuracy and 6th in putting, which has all the makings for success around St George’s.
RBC Canadian Open Prop Bet
Adam Hadwin top-5 finish (+750)
Odds available at DraftKings Sportsbook at time of publishing
ANOTHER Canadian! Hadwin has played well in his national open, with three top-10 career finishes including a sixth place in 2019. He’s also having a great season with four top-10s and excellent around-the-green stats (18th on Tour). Let’s continue my hot top-5 streak!
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