Diane Knox Balas
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The American power duo of Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele went wire-to-wire in New Orleans to win the Zurich Classic last week. The pair put on a spectacular display and even with a couple of bogeys, a level-par round and a chasing team of Billy Horschel and Sam Burns, they won by two strokes. I’m still not over my disappointment of the Pereira/Neimann team WD (Pereira unfortunately injured his back during the opening round), but I was happy with my pick of Zalatoris/Riley — who shot a 6-under in alternate shot on Sunday to finish in a tie for 4th.
This week we’re back to regular stroke play and we have a brand new tournament to enjoy on the PGA Tour, the first edition of the Mexico Open at Vidanta. I had to pull out ol’ Google Maps this week to get my bearings, and I’m glad I did. This is the second PGA Tour event held in Mexico this season, the other being the World Wide Technology Championship at Mayakoba. If you were to draw a line from Cancun straight across Mexico, you would pretty much end up in Puerto Vallarta.
Although the field is relatively weak, we do have some headline names teeing it up like Jon Rahm, Abraham Ancer and Tony Finau (Daniel Berger withdrew on Monday). Rahm is the clear favorite to take home the trophy at odds of +400. But I see this as an “opportunity week” to really dive into the field and locate some under-the-radar value.
Vidanta Vallarta course preview: What you need to know
Vidanta Vallarta is a par 71 measuring 7,456 yards. A Greg Norman design, the course opened in 2015 and 250 extra yards were added to prepare for the arrival of this PGA Tour event.
There is a lot of room off the tee, but the premium looks to be on the approach shot this week. The greens are protected by big, cavernous bunkers and in addition to the extra yardage, 51 new sand traps were added from the course’s original design. It’s a stunning property along the coast, with views of the Sierra Madre mountain range on every hole.
The layout is pretty long for a coastal course and — from what I’ve heard from my sources on site this week — the long hitters will be at an advantage, especially with those wide-open tee shots. Also, like any of these destination courses the exposure to wind will be a factor to consider this week. As much as I’m looking at distance off the tee, the approach shots are going to be key.
Knox’s Knockout Mexico Open picks
Abraham Ancer +2000 (DK Sportsbook)
Ancer is definitely one of the headline names teeing it up this week, and the Mexican will no doubt receive a very warm welcome from the spectating fans. It felt like Ancer was building up some great form before he was forced to WD from the Valero Texas Open due to illness, and he didn’t show any spark at the Masters the following week. But he must be rested and fully amped up to be playing in his home country this week. Ancer’s accuracy stats and iron play have always been his strengths, and his putter has been especially hot this year. Like I said, he is of the favorites this week — but the odds are still good for a win at his national open.
Matt Jones +6500 (DK Sportsbook)
Whenever I think of coastal courses, I think of the wind being a factor and look for players who deal with the conditions well. Matt Jones grew up playing this style of golf in Australia and has performed well in windy conditions, winning the Honda Classic at very blustery PGA National in 2021. He’s had two top-10 finishes this year and one of came at the Sentry Tournament of Champions in Hawaii, another course where the wind always has to be factored in. Jones can be guilty of the wayward tee ball, but he’s a relatively long hitter with phenomenal around-the-green stats (5th on the PGA Tour) and when he has his irons dialed in he is tough to beat. I like this price this week, especially after seeing him finish runner-up at the Valero Texas Open at the start of the month.
Scott Stallings +8000 (BetMGM)
Scott Stallings is a guy who has to be raring to go. He’s has been playing well this season and was really establishing a good run of form before missing the cut at the RBC Heritage and then at the Zurich Classic last week (which we’ll take with a pinch of salt). It’s no secret that Stallings loves to lift weights in the gym and the gains are paying off with his driving distance stats this season. Plus, he’s not one of those guys who’s never scared to pull out the driver! His putter is hot, too, having gained strokes on the field on the greens in three of his last four events. I feel a low-scoring tournament has been brewing for Stallings; the opportunity is there for him this week.
Mexico Open prop bets
Carlos Ortiz Top-5 Finish +1600 (DK Sportsbook)
Another player who will receive a hero’s welcome at Vidanta Vallarta is Carlos Ortiz. The 2021/22 season hasn’t been all that strong for Ortiz, but I think he wll have a real pep in his step being back in his native country — and his brother is playing this week, too! His best finish by far this season was at the tour’s only other Mexican venue (Mayakoba), where he finished runner-up. I like him to regain some familiar form this week and climb that leaderboard. I was quite shocked by his value on the board.
Martin Trainer Top-10 Finish +2800 (DK Sportsbook)
I like to think of this kind of tournament, with an overall weaker field, as an “opportunity week”, so I have to give you a (really big) long shot. In case you’re not familiar with Martin Trainer, let me tell you a bit about him. He has one victory on the PGA Tour and that came at the 2019 Puerto Rico Open — an exotic coastal destination tournament. This season has shown some real positives in his game with two top-10 finishes, and one of those came at the Corales Puntacana Championship (do you see where I’m going with this?!?!). Trainer is a big hitter and accuracy is not his strength, but it’s not so penalizing this week. Plus, he’s sitting at 12th on the Tour in SG: Putting. This may be a wild pick, but we’ve seen some glimmers of great form from Trainer this season and this course could be a decent fit.
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