Are you missing baseball, too? For those that don’t know me, hello! My name is Keith Schmelter and I was the most profitable MLB writer on the Pickswise staff last season. I finished +37.6 units on money line/run-line picks, +52.9 units on game totals, and +39.3 units (21-6-1) on three-star plays for Pickswise. I am a die-hard baseball fan with an even greater passion for statistics who loves to watch and bet on baseball. While the MLB is in a lockout, I will be analyzing every MLB team and giving my predictions for their 2022 season.
Moving along in the AL Central, let’s analyze the Detroit Tigers.
Detroit Tigers breakdown
2022 World Series odds: +4500
2022 AL Central odds: +700
2021 record: 77-85
2021 O/U record: 68-86-8
Key players in: Javier Baez (SS), Eduardo Rodriguez (SP), Tucker Barnhart (C), Andrew Chafin (RP)
Key players out: None
Story of last season
April was a nightmare for the Tigers. They won just 8 of their 27 games in April and found themselves with the worst record in baseball. It was hard to identify one singular problem when so many things were going wrong such as Detroit pitchers posting a 5.08 ERA and their offense hitting for a .199 average. Fortunately for the Tigers, they did start to improve and posted a winning record in each month for four of the next five months. It became clear that the rebuild in Detroit may finally be ending.
If I asked you to name the Tigers player with the highest WAR last season, would you name Jeimer Candelario? The 28-year-old has found a home in Detroit after posting a .297 batting average in 2020 and a .271 average in 2021 which has added a boost to the lineup that the Tigers desperately needed. The young pitching staff of Casey Mize, Tarik Skubal, and Matt Manning were solid starters, but a combined 4.42 ERA was slightly disappointing. Expectations will be much higher for the young core in 2022.
Detroit Tigers 2022 MLB season predictions
The Tigers had two main goals for this off-season: sign a quality shortstop and a reliable starting pitcher. It took Detroit just a few weeks to fill both those needs as they signed Javier Baez to a massive 6-year contract and Eduardo Rodriguez to a 5-year contract.
Baez started slow in 2021 as he hit just .248 with the Cubs, but he thrived in New York with a .299 average in 47 games. His biggest weakness is his high strikeout rate as he took strike three in over 36% of at-bats in 2021 which doesn’t mix well with the Tigers offense that had the 4th most strikeouts in 2021. Regardless, Baez will replace the revolving door the Tigers had at shortstop and have the chance to be the center of an up-and-coming team.
The acquisition of Rodriguez could move Mize out of the ace spot, which could be a good change for the former #1 overall pick. In his first full season, Mize had a 3.71 ERA, but a 4.95 xERA as well as ranking in the 20th percentile or worse in barrel percentage, chase rate, and strikeout rate. Rodriguez is a 28-year-old with a lot of potential who is coming off a very strong season with the Red Sox after missing the entire 2020 season dealing with complications from contracting COVID-19. He had a 4.74 ERA in 2021, but a 3.32 FIP and 10.6 strikeouts per 9 innings which were the best numbers of his 6-year career. With Spencer Turnbull and Matthew Boyd (who is a free agent) both expected to miss the start of the 2022 season due to recovery from injuries, the Tigers’ starting rotation lacks reliability.
An interesting alternative to Baez at shortstop would be signing star free agent Carlos Correa to play shortstop and move Baez to second, which is where he played with the Mets. AJ Hinch is Correa’s former manager and he could follow in Hinch’s footsteps as it appears Correa is done playing in Houston. But reports indicated that Correa turned down a 10-year, $275 million contract from the Tigers prior to the lockout, so Detroit may need to up their offer or Correa will find a home somewhere else.
Tigers fans should also be on the lookout for MLB’s #5 prospect Spencer Torkelson who moved from Single-A up to Triple-A throughout the 2021 season, but his .238 average in 40 games in Triple-A indicate that he may not be ready for the big leagues yet. The corner infielder could add the power bat Detroit needs in the lineup when the time is right.
With all things considered, the Tigers are undervalued at +700 to win the AL Central and +4500 to win it all. The White Sox have a strong team, but Detroit has already begun acquiring their biggest needs for this upcoming season and could very well give the White Sox a run for their money. If the Tigers add a solid third or fourth starter to their rotation, they will have the talent for a competitive season and could be worth a futures bet.
2022 MLB season team previews
Check out the rest of our team previews for the upcoming baseball season!
- New York Yankees
- Boston Red Sox
- Tampa Bay Rays
- Toronto Blue Jays
- Baltimore Orioles
- Chicago White Sox
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