Andrew Ortenberg
Show Bio
Championship Sunday is here. The NFL playoffs have been a thrilling ride so far, and we can expect some more great action this weekend as we determine who will be playing for a Super Bowl in Las Vegas. The Detroit Lions are on a miraculous run, and they’ll look to keep the magic going here against a heavily favored San Francisco 49ers team. Will Dan Campbell take his lovable underdogs to the Super Bowl, or will this be the year that Kyle Shanahan finally gets a ring? I can’t wait to find out.
There’s only one way to properly celebrate this playoff showdown, and that’s with a Same Game Parlay. Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL playoff picks on sides and totals. I hit one of these in the wild card round at +1305 for Packers vs Cowboys, now let’s make it two out of three weeks with a big winner.
Detroit Lions ML (+295)
Jared Goff 2+ passing touchdowns (-104)
Jared Goff 300+ passing yards (+250)
Parlay odds: +1091
We have a 3-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out just north of 10/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Detroit Lions ML (+295)
To start this Same Game Parlay I have the Lions straight up on the money line. Detroit just trounced the Buccaneers last week, while the 49ers didn’t look nearly as convincing against the Packers. San Francisco played terribly for much of that game against Green Bay, and Brock Purdy didn’t turn it on until the final drive of the game.
Purdy had several dropped picks in that one, and the 49ers only escaped with a victory because the Packers’ kicker shanked a timely kick. Detroit is humming on both sides of the ball right now, while San Francisco quietly didn’t play that great down the stretch of the regular season before laying a dud in their first playoff game.
The last time the 49ers were really tested before the playoffs was when they played the Ravens at home in Week 16, and they lost by 14. Purdy had four interceptions in that one, so I’m not sure his erratic play against Green Bay in the divisional round was a one-time fluke.
Last week the Lions were able to really heat up Baker Mayfield, and they sacked him four times. If they can get that kind of pressure here, I think we’ll see Purdy crumple once again.
Jared Goff 2+ passing touchdowns (-104)
I think the next 2 legs of this Same Game Parlay correlate nicely with the Lions on the money line. All three of these plays are very strongly tied together, since if Goff has three passing touchdowns I think Detroit is very likely to come away with a win. Goff attempted 43 passes last week, and that was a game they were mostly in control of.
If there’s one thing we know this Lions team is going to do, it’s be aggressive. Especially as big underdogs on the road. If they go down they’re going to go down swinging, so I like Goff’s chances of putting up some big numbers in this game. And like I said, these plays correlate strongly. This season, Detroit is 8-2 when Goff throws multiple touchdowns.
The Lions’ offense has one of the highest ceilings in the league, and including the postseason they’ve already scored 30+ 9 times this year. The last time they went on the road, they dropped 30 against a pretty tough Vikings defense. All we need to cash this parlay is one more big game from Goff and Ben Johnson, which brings us to our 3rd and final leg…
Jared Goff 300+ passing yards (+250)
Goff threw 43 passes last week, and I expect them to let him rip it just as much here. The 49ers are giving up the third-fewest rushing yards per game in the league, and I don’t think the Lions are going to waste too much time trying to attack their stout defensive front on the ground. Goff will be chucking it from the opening snap, and I don’t think San Francisco’s secondary is anything to be afraid of.
The 49ers are a bit thin at corner, and the Lions have plenty of talent at the skill positions. Sam Laporta’s knee is getting healthier with each passing week, and he still managed to haul in 9 catches last week even while hobbled. It was obfuscated by the heavy rain, but there were big plays to be had against the 49ers last week that Jordan Love just barely missed.
Goff averaged 10.3 yards per attempt against the Rams in the wild card round, and he’s played in plenty of big games (a Super Bowl even) during his time with Los Angeles, so I don’t expect the moment to over whelm him or the lights to be too bright for him here.
