Andrew Ortenberg
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We’ve got a jam-packed Week 10 slate with a ton of great matchups, including this highly anticipated cross-conference clash between the Detroit Lions and Los Angeles Chargers. In Week 7 week I cooked up two same game parlays, one for Bills/Patriots at +1683 odds, and one for Lions/Ravens at +1596 odds. Both of them hit. Then in Week 8 I did another two, and I hit on Bengals/49ers at +1187.
Let’s keep the winners going this week as I attempt two more. You can check out my SGP for Giants vs Cowboys here. You can also read all our other NFL Week 10 picks for the side and total here, but now let’s get right into this Lions/Chargers same game parlay.
Los Angeles Chargers alt spread -6.5 (+300)
Quentin Johnson to have 60+ receiving yards (+400)
Parlay odds: +1538
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay which pays out at almost 16/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Los Angeles Chargers alt spread -6.5 (+300)
To start this Same Game Parlay we’ve got the Chargers on an alt spread. The Lions have been a great story this season, but I’m skeptical that they’re as good as their record suggests. Their victory over the Chiefs in Week 1 was impressive, but since then their wins have come against the Falcons, Packers, Panthers, Buccaneers and Raiders. Not exactly a murderer’s row. They’ve only really been tested twice since the opener, against the Seahawks and Ravens, and they lost both those matchups.
Not only did they lose both of those matchups they lost them both by giving up 37 points. Which is why I think the Chargers make a lot of sense on the alt spread, since the Lions’ defense has shown to have a really low floor when going up against more capable passing games. Baltimore just picked them apart two weeks ago, beating them 38-6. And you can’t really give the Lions too much credit for beating a rapidly spiraling Raiders team their last time out.
Los Angeles is coming off back to back wins of 17+ points, and their defense appears to be rounding into form. They had one recent bad game against the Chiefs, but outside of that they’ve given up 20 points or fewer in four straight.
Joey Bosa finally appears to be healthy, and he had 2.5 sacks and a fumble recovery last week. Jared Goff struggles when he’s under pressure, and if Bosa is at the top of his game then he’s going to be under pressure frequently.
Quentin Johnson to have 60+ receiving yards (+400)
I’m going with Johnson’s alt receiving yards here, and I think it correlates nicely with the first leg of our same game parlay. If the Chargers are covering the -6.5 alt spread it’s likely going to be because Justin Herbert had a lot of success through the air, not because Austin Ekeler had a big day on the ground. That’s because the Lions have one of the best run defenses in the league. In fact, they’re giving up the third fewest rushing yards per game of any team.
And if the Chargers’ passing attack is having success, they’re going to need some production from Johnson, the first-round rookie from TCU. Mike Williams is already done for the year with a torn ACL, and now Josh Palmer who had replaced him is down with a knee injury of his own. That means Johnson will be featured the most he has been in his young career, and I think he’s poised for a breakout.
He was quiet last week with just a couple of catches, but that’s because the Chargers’ defense was dominating Zach Wilson so badly that LA played it very conservatively on offense and Herbert finished with only 136 yards for the game.
The week before that, Johnson had a pretty big role against the Bears on Sunday Night Football, catching five passes for 50 yards with six targets. And that was with Palmer still playing in that game. If there were ever a time for him to step up, it would be here. The last time the Lions’ secondary faced a competent quarterback, Lamar Jackson shredded them for 357 yards and three different Baltimore pass-catchers had 60+.
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What is a Same Game Parlay?
Check out our guide on what is a Same Game Parlay and where can I bet it?
