Andrew Ortenberg
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The Week 14 NFL slate is full of great matchups, and we have a classic NFC North rivalry showdown here as the Chicago Bears host the Detroit Lions. Chicago squandered a late lead when these teams first met earlier this season in Detroit, and now it will look to get revenge at home. There’s only one way to properly celebrate this division clash, and that’s with a Same Game Parlay.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL Week 14 picks on sides and totals. But now let’s get right into this Lions vs Bears SGP.
Chicago Bears -2.5 alternate spread (+176)
Justin Fields 225+ passing yards (+178)
Sam LaPorta over 46.5 receiving yards (-113)
Parlay odds: +1070
We have a 3-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out just north of 10/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Chicago Bears -2.5 alternate spread (+176)
To start this Same Game Parlay I have the Bears -2.5 on an alternate spread. Chicago should have won when these teams first played this season, and that game was in Detroit. The Bears led by 12 points with less than three minutes to go before suffering a massive choke, but that choke doesn’t change the fact that it was an undeniably impressive effort from Matt Eberflus’ team. Chicago has quietly been playing a lot better for a while; it is 4-4 in its last 8 after starting 0-4.
The Bears have also won back to back games at home, and always play better at Soldier Field. Last week they gutted out a tough win on the road against the Vikings and haven’t shown any signs of quit despite the disappointing season. I also don’t think the Lions are nearly as good as many in the media make them out to be. Last week they nearly blew a massive lead to a terrible Saints team, and the week before that they got their butts kicked by the Packers on Thanksgiving.
The only time they played a playoff team recently was when they faced the Ravens, and they got demolished by a score of 38-6. Jared Goff is notorious for his struggles in cold weather and it’s going to be pretty chilly and gloomy outdoors in Chicago.
Justin Fields 225+ passing yards (+178)
I think this play correlates nicely with the first leg of the SGP, because the Lions have one of the league’s best run defenses. So if the Bears are covering -2.5, they are going to need Fields to come through in the passing game. In his 2 games since returning from his thumb injury, Fields has been completing more than 70 percent of his passes, and in his 2 games before going down he had 282 and 335 passing yards.
The acquisition of DJ Moore has helped him immensely, and Detroit’s pass defense certainly isn’t anything to be afraid of. The Lions have the fifth-fewest sacks of any team in the NFL and they rank 24th in yards per attempt allowed. Just last week they let Derek Carr average 10.1 yards per attempt. If Carr can have success against this Detroit secondary, Fields certainly can, too.
Sam LaPorta over 46.5 receiving yards (-113)
To wrap up this sGP we just need LaPorta to clear 46 receiving yards. And I don’t think this leg conflicts with our Bears -2.5 leg, because if Chicago is winning this game then it means the Lions will be passing more to catch up. The rookie tight end from Iowa looks like the league’s next great tight end, and last week against New Orleans he had 9 catches for 140 yards.
LaPorta has gotten to 47+ receiving yards in 8 of his 12 games this season and has racked up at least three catches in every game of his pro career. And now he is facing a Bears defense that is giving up the eighth-most receptions to tight ends this season. There was supposed to be heavy wind for this game earlier in the week but the forecasts have mellowed out significantly, which should help both passing games.
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