Best Bet- Will the Lions make the playoffs? No (-400)
Worst Bet – Lions to win the NFC North (+700)
Last offseason all the talk was about the Detroit Lions ushering in a new era with Matt Patricia leading the team. When the dust settled, the season had some highs and a lot of lows. After having winning seasons in three of the previous four years they took a huge step back, winning only six games, and it left a lot of people scratching their head.
The expectation was that with Patricia they would take the next step forward and maybe even compete for the NFC North. That obviously didn’t happen, which means there will be a lot of pressure on Patricia and the rest of the Lions to deliver this year.
The Lions’ franchise player is quarterback Matthew Stafford and while he always puts up huge stats, somehow his team hasn’t been able to get over the hump and win a playoff game. Last season Stafford threw for 3,777 yards, 21 touchdowns, 11 interceptions while completing 66.1 percent of his passes.
Those stats weren’t good enough, although it’s recently been reported that he may have played with a broken back in 2018, which helps explain some of the problems.
On the defensive side, the line struggled for most of the season and that is something they really tried to improve on this offseason. Their biggest signing was defensive end Trey Flowers, who is one of the best at his position in the league and has played under Patricia before in New England.
In April’s draft, the Lions selected Iowa Hawkeyes tight end T.J. Hockenson with their first-round pick. The hope is that he will be another weapon for Stafford to help improve the passing game, as Detroit got virtually nothing from their tight ends last year.
How well this team does this season starts with Stafford, and he needs to play better than he did last year. But it’s also going to be equally as important that the rest of the supporting cast on defense and offense step up and take their game to the next level as well.
Lions Win Total: O/U 6.5 Wins
I think the Lions are actually a pretty good team but luck usually isn’t on their side, and that is the case for the Lions yet again this year. Even though they are a decent team, they are the worst team in the NFC North, and it’s not particularly close.
It’s the Green Bay Packers, Minnesota Vikings, and the Chicago Bears who are competing for the division title, and then it’s the Lions who are a good step behind them.
The Lions have to play two games each against the Vikings, Bears, and the Packers and having to go against three good quarterbacks isn’t going to be good for their defense.
The Lions didn’t get many gifts in the rest of their schedule either. They have to play the Chargers, Chiefs, and Cowboys among others that are going to make the schedule a real grind.
I expect Stafford to be better this year, but I don’t see them going better than 2-4 in division play and if they win one game between the Chargers, Chiefs, and Cowboys that’ll be a surprise.
Last year they won six games and that is the max I see them winning this year. Look for the under 6.5 to cash this year, and this is a very confident pick.
Odds To Make The Playoffs: Yes +300, No -400
-400 is a big number to lay, but this is about as safe a bet as there is in the NFL this season. In 2018 it took at least nine wins to make the playoffs and I don’t see this team getting above six. Even if they were to win more than six, they might win seven or eight, but they aren’t getting to that key number of nine.
As I said above, the Lions have a tough schedule, and they are projected to be favored in only three of their games. Upsets always happen, but a good team that expects to make the playoffs probably should be favored in about half of their games, if not more.
It might be tempting to take a team with Stafford at +300 to get into the playoffs but this is a bet you can’t take the bait on. Back the Lions to not make the playoffs at -400 and don’t be afraid to bet this one really big because the Lions aren’t making the postseason.
Odds to win the NFC North +900
The Bears are the favorites to win the North at +170, followed by the Packers at +190, and the Vikings at +240. All those odds are really close, and then comes the Lions who are at +900.
Anything can happen and I am sure there are some who will bet the Lions just because they are +900, but it just feels like a waste of money.
The last time the Lions won the NFC North Championship was in 1993, and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers won the NFC North more recently than the Lions have.
At some point the Lions will win the NFC North, but it’s not going to be this year. Don’t waste your money placing a wager on this, it has no chance of paying out.
Odds To Win NFC Championship: +4000
The Lions have the third worst odds to win the NFC Championship, with only the Washington Redskins and the Arizona Cardinals sitting with worse odds.
It’s hard to make the Super Bowl if you don’t make the playoffs, and with the Lions not even making it close the playoffs this bet doesn’t stand a chance. The Lions won’t be winning the NFC Championship this year, and they won’t be winning it for the foreseeable future either.
Odds To Win The Super Bowl: +8000
To win a Super Bowl you need to have a complete team, or be elite on one side of the ball. The Lions don’t have a complete team and neither the offense or defense are elite. Maybe if this was at +25000 it would be worth a few bucks but at +8000 there isn’t any value.
