Best Bet – Nuggets to make the playoffs (-500)
Worst Bet – Nuggets to win (+2200)
The Denver Nuggets had a successful 2018-19 season, finishing with a 54-28 record which was good enough for second place in the Western Conference. They made it to the Western Conference Semifinals but were bounced by the Trail Blazers in seven games.
Nikola Jokic has become a star in the league and last year he finished averaging 20.1 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 7.2 assists. Not only is he gifted playing from inside but he is also an elite passer that opens up the floor for the rest of the guys. This season was a wild offseason for most with a ton of guys changing teams, but the Nuggets decided they are going to run back out basically the same roster for next season.
Along with Jokic, Jamal Murray and the rest of the squad back, there is a chance the team could even be better. At one point many believed that Michael Porter Jr. would be the first overall pick, but back injuries derailed that. He is still dealing with injuries heading into the season, but the expectation is that he will make his debut at some point and if he can stay healthy there is no doubt he adds something to the team.
The Nuggets’ offense was good last year but the defense is really where the bread and butter of the team was. They were especially strong defending from deep, letting opponents shoot only 33.9 percent from three which was the best figure in the league. This is a team that prides itself on defense and if they are going to win the West this year, it will because of that strong defense.
Nuggets Win Total: O/U 51.5 Wins
Last season the Nuggets finished with 54 wins and Vegas is expecting a little bit of regression with their total sitting at 51.5 for this season.
Vegas is usually pretty sharp on their totals, and I think that they are just about right with this one. The one thing about all the moves this offseason is that the Western Conference actually got better. Gone is Kevin Durant but D’Angelo Russell came back to the Warriors and they are still the Warriors and should give some team fits.
The Clippers got better, adding Paul George and Kawhi Leonard and in the Northwest division, and the Jazz got a lot better. Like stated above, there is a good chance that the Nuggets are actually better this year, but I think that they will win less games during the regular season.
The Western Conference really isn’t going to have any easy games and I think that will take a toll on the team’s win total. Back the under 51.5 to cash and put some extra cash in your pocket.
Odds To Make The Playoffs: Yes -500, No +400
Vegas sees the Nuggets’ chances to make the playoffs as very strong with the line sitting at -500, and I think that it actually should be a little higher. Even with the Western Conference being more difficult night in and night out, everyone else in the division is going to have to deal with a similar schedule.
The good news for the Nuggets is they have depth on their roster too. Even if Jokic goes down with injury, this is still a playoff team. They might not be a top-four seed then, but they still have enough talent to get into the playoffs.
The only way that this team misses the playoffs is if three or four of the starters go out with injury for a long period of time. Even at -500 this is the best bet on the board and I wouldn’t be afraid to lock up a lot of money on it.
Odds to win the Northwest +175
The Northwest division is competitive and the Nuggets comes in with the second-best odds behind the suddenly intimidating Utah Jazz.
While the Nuggets decided to stay put and try to run it back with basically the same team as last year, the Jazz added Conley and some strong role players to get better. Can the Nuggets win the northwest? Of course they can, they have the talent to get it done, but they aren’t the best team in the division anymore. If this number was sitting at plus +250 or +300 there would be some value, and I would suggest to bet it, but I can’t back at this price.
I would stay away from betting the Nuggets to win the division unless this number moves to more favorable odds.
Odds to win Western Conference +1000
Just because I don’t feel you should bet on the Nuggets to win their division, doesn’t mean I don’t think they can have success in the Western Conference.
Who comes out of the Western Conference is anyone’s guess and will probably come down to which team can limit injuries during the regular season. I am not sure home court is really going to matter as much as some people think this year, and I think that will actually help the Nuggets who I don’t expect to have the top seed.
This Western Conference could be anyone’s, so I think it would be smart to take at team at +1000 and throw a couple of dollars on them. I wouldn’t bet them big, but I would still place some type of bet on them.
Odds to win NBA Championship +1600
My feelings are a bit different on this team winning the NBA Championship. I actually think this is the year that an Eastern Conference team comes away raising the Larry O’Brien Trophy. The Western Conference is going to be tough and there aren’t going to be many sweeps from any team during the playoffs.
I think those extra games are going to take a toll on the chances for any Western Conference team to win the title. If this number was sitting at +3000 or higher, I would say maybe throw a few dollars on it, but at this price, there is no value. The Nuggets are not winning the NBA Title this year.
