Andrew Ortenberg
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We’re officially approaching the home stretch of the 2023 NFL regular season. While that’s a bit sad to say, it also means we’ll be treated to Saturday games for each of the next few weeks. We have a 3-game Saturday slate this week that will conclude with the Detroit Lions hosting the Denver Broncos in primetime. There’s only one way to properly celebrate this standalone clash, and that’s with a Same Game Parlay.
Before we dive in, don’t forget to read all our other NFL Week 15 picks on sides and totals. But now let’s get right into this Broncos vs Lions SGP.
Russell Wilson 250+ passing yards (+200)
Alternate total under 38.5 (+320)
Parlay odds: +2073
We have a 2-leg Same Game Parlay, which pays out just north of 20/1 with FanDuel Sportsbook. Let’s break it down.
Russell Wilson 250+ passing yards (+200)
To start this Same Game Parlay I have Wilson to record 250+ passing yards. Detroit’s pass defense has been cratering recently, and the past 2 weeks it let Justin Fields and Derek Carr move the ball with ease. The week before that the Lions gave up 8.4 yards per attempt to Jordan Love. Overall on the year they are 23rd in yards per attempt allowed. They are also 25th in sacks — which is big because Wilson tends to struggle more when he’s under pressure.
Detroit has tried shuffling things around at cornerback, but it doesn’t appear to be working. The Lions do have a pretty stout run defense, though; they are seventh in yards per carry allowed — so I’m expecting Sean Payton’s gameplan to be a bit more pass-heavy than usual. This is the biggest underdog the Broncos have been in a while, so they know they are going to have to let Wilson be a bit more aggressive if they want to win this one on the road.
Courtland Sutton has been playing out of his mind recently, and he should be in for another big day here against a team without a shutdown corner. Wilson’s completion percentage is up nearly seven percent from last year, and even though he’s been far from perfect he has also been clearly better than he was last year under Nathaniel Hackett.
Alternate total under 38.5 (+320)
To wrap up this SGP we have an alternate total. And we get a huge odds boost from combining this with Wilson hitting 250, when I don’t think it conflicts much at all. Because if this alt under cashes, it’s going to be because the Lions’ offense struggled. Detroit only mustered 13 points against Chicago last week, and their good performances this year have mostly come against really weak defenses.
One of the only times they have really been tested recently was when they played the Ravens a handful of weeks back, and they only scored 6 points in that game. Jared Goff’s efficiency is down from last year; he has thrown 3 more interceptions in 4 fewer games. The Broncos’ defense got off to a rough start, but Vance Joseph’s unit has been coming along strong lately. Across their last 3 games, Denver has given up just 41 total points. It might surprise you to learn that the Broncos haven’t allowed more than 22 points in 8 consecutive games despite the fact that they have faced the Chiefs twice and the Bills during that stretch. Denver’s offense doesn’t have a very high ceiling, either, and something like a 20-17 final feels like the most likely outcome to me.
